Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America

The analysis finds that while the low rainfall during the October-December 2022 period in Central South America cannot be attributed to climate change and is partly driven by La Niña, human-induced climate change likely reduced water availability by increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration. This exacerbates the agricultural drought, which has already caused severe crop losses in Argentina and water shortages in Uruguay.

• The drought has caused severe agricultural and economic damage, including a 61 percent drop in grain and oilseed export revenue in Argentina between January 2022 and January 2023, and the halving of annual wheat and soy harvests in Argentina, which may lead to export deficits of 25-50%. In Uruguay, over 75,000 people lack access to potable water.
• The low rainfall event from October to December 2022 in the most impacted region of Central South America has a return period of 20 years (a 5% annual chance), with some individual stations showing return times up to 50 years. The rainfall deficit is partly driven by La Niña, as evidenced by a high correlation with the Niño 3.4 index.
• The study concludes that the low rainfall itself cannot be attributed to human-induced climate change. While a trend of reduced rainfall over the last 40 years was observed, it is not confident that this trend is beyond natural variability, and climate models showed that low rainfall events actually become wetter.
• Although rainfall is within natural variability, human-induced climate change likely increased the severity of the agricultural drought by increasing temperatures, which decreased water availability in late 2022. The study cannot quantify this specific effect but notes that extreme heat makes drought consequences more severe.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/vulnerability-and-high-temperatures-exacerbate-impacts-of-ongoing-drought-in-central-south-america/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/vulnerability-and-high-temperatures-exacerbate-impacts-of-ongoing-drought-in-central-south-america/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America |date=16 February 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/vulnerability-and-high-temperatures-exacerbate-impacts-of-ongoing-drought-in-central-south-america/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023vulnerability, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/vulnerability-and-high-temperatures-exacerbate-impacts-of-ongoing-drought-in-central-south-america/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }