Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings

The world faces a 69 percent gap between 2006 crop calories and those required by 2050 for a population of 9.6 billion. Closing this gap through production alone would require increases exceeding those seen between 1962 and 2006. The document proposes a 'menu of solutions' categorized by reducing consumption, increasing production on existing land, and reducing emissions. Key strategies include cutting food loss and waste in half (reducing the gap by 20%), achieving replacement level fertility in sub-Saharan Africa (reducing the regional gap by 25%), and shifting 20% of future beef consumption to other proteins. It warns that aggressive bioenergy targets could widen the food gap to 100%.

• The world faces a projected 69 percent gap between crop calories produced in 2006 and those required by 2050 to feed an estimated population of 9.6 billion. Closing this gap solely through production would require a total crop production increase 11 percent larger than the increase seen from 1962 to 2006.
• Agricultural production is a major driver of environmental degradation and climate change. Land conversion for agriculture accounts for approximately 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, while current production (excluding land use change) releases about 6.5 gigatons of CO2e annually. Without mitigation, total agriculture-related emissions could reach 15 Gt by 2050, which would consume a significant portion of the global carbon budget needed to limit warming to 2° Celsius.
• Reducing food loss and waste is a highly effective strategy for closing the food gap. Globally, cutting these losses in half by 2050 would reduce the food gap by approximately 20 percent. In developing countries, two-thirds of these losses occur during harvesting, handling, and storage, making this a particularly cost-effective option for sub-Saharan Africa.
• Dietary shifts, particularly regarding animal products, can reduce land and emission demands. Beef is identified as highly inefficient, converting only 1 percent of gross animal feed energy into human food. Shifting 20 percent of anticipated future global beef consumption to other proteins would save hundreds of millions of hectares of carbon-storing land.
• Addressing fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa is critical for regional food security. The region's fertility rate is 5.4 children per woman, compared to a replacement level of roughly 2.1. Achieving replacement level fertility in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 would reduce the global food gap by 9 percent and the regional food gap by 25 percent.
• Increasing yields without expanding land requires 'smarter farming' and improved breeding. To meet crop needs without expanding harvested areas, average yields would need to grow 32 percent faster from 2006 to 2050 than they did from 1962 to 2006. Opportunities include agroforestry in sub-Saharan Africa's drylands and utilizing low-carbon degraded lands, such as 14 million hectares in Indonesia's Kalimantan region for palm oil.
• Bioenergy targets pose a significant risk to food security. If the world met a goal of 10 percent transportation fuel from biofuels by 2050, the food gap would widen from 69 percent to approximately 100 percent. Conversely, abandoning crop-based biofuels for transportation would close the 2050 crop calorie gap by about 14 percent.

APA

Steer, A. (n.d.). Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings

Chicago

Steer, Andrew. Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings. World Resources Institute, n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Steer |first1=Andrew |title=Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings |publisher=World Resources Institute |url=https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{steerndcreating, author = {Steer, Andrew}, title = {{Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }