GETTING TO $100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020

This World Resources Institute working paper analyzes four scenarios to determine how developed countries can meet the 2009 Copenhagen commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. The analysis projects that reaching the target will likely require a combination of public finance sources and leveraged private sector investment, while noting a persistent imbalance where mitigation finance far outweighs adaptation finance.

• Scenario 1, which relies solely on developed country climate finance, is projected to fail the $100 billion target by 2020 unless it achieves an annual growth rate of 25 percent. Under the high-growth projection, this source would only reach $55 billion in 2020.
• Scenario 2, adding private sector finance leveraged by developed country climate finance, only meets the $100 billion target under a high-growth and high-leverage projection, reaching $184 billion in 2020.
• Scenario 3, combining developed country climate finance, adjusted multilateral development bank (MDB) climate finance, and leveraged private sector investment from both, could reach the $100 billion target under medium-growth and medium-leverage projections.
• Scenario 4, which includes all sources from Scenario 3 plus adjusted climate-related official development assistance (ODA), is the most likely to succeed, potentially reaching $100 billion even under low-growth and low-leverage projections.
• Across all analyzed scenarios, there is a projected imbalance between types of finance, with mitigation finance expected to be significantly higher than adaptation finance.
• The authors suggest a 'middle ground' for reaching the target involves combining leveraged private sector investment, MDB climate finance, and climate-related ODA with increased public flows.
• Potential new and innovative sources to supplement developed country climate finance include the redirection of fossil fuel subsidies, carbon market revenues, financial transaction taxes, export credits, and debt relief.
• The analysis identifies significant data limitations, including a lack of consistency across biennial reports, MDBs, and the OECD regarding the definitions of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

APA

WESTPHAL, M. I., CANFIN, P., BALLESTEROS, A., & MORGAN, J. (2015). GETTING TO $100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/getting-to-100-billion-final.pdf

Chicago

WESTPHAL, MICHAEL I., PASCAL CANFIN, ATHENA BALLESTEROS, and JENNIFER MORGAN. GETTING TO $100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020. World Resources Institute, 2015. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/getting-to-100-billion-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=WESTPHAL |first1=MICHAEL I. |last2=CANFIN |first2=PASCAL |last3=BALLESTEROS |first3=ATHENA |last4=MORGAN |first4=JENNIFER |title=GETTING TO $100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020 |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=May 2015 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/getting-to-100-billion-final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{westphal2015getting, author = {WESTPHAL, MICHAEL I. and CANFIN, PASCAL and BALLESTEROS, ATHENA and MORGAN, JENNIFER}, title = {{GETTING TO \$100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2015}, month = may, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/getting-to-100-billion-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }