AQUEDUCT PROJECTED WATER STRESS COUNTRY RANKINGS

The document details the creation of global country-level water stress projections by aggregating sub-catchment data using a spatially weighted methodology. It utilizes IPCC AR5 data to model three scenarios—optimistic, business-as-usual, and pessimistic—across three time horizons (2020, 2030, 2040). The rankings are designed to help investors, companies, and governments benchmark national water risks and prioritize adaptation. A 2040 business-as-usual ranking identifies several Middle Eastern countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, as having the highest water stress scores of 5.00.

• The analysis uses a spatially weighted aggregation methodology to convert sub-catchment scale projections to a national scale, using gridded water-withdrawal datasets as weights to prioritize areas with the highest human demand.
• Water stress is quantified as the ratio of total water withdrawals to available renewable surface water, with scores ranging from 0 to 5. A score between 4 and 5 is categorized as 'Extremely high', representing a withdrawal-to-available water ratio of over 80%.
• The projections are based on three combined IPCC scenarios: 'optimistic' (RCP4.5 and SSP2), 'business-as-usual' (RCP8.5 and SSP2), and 'pessimistic' (RCP8.5 and SSP3).
• Under the 2040 business-as-usual scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, San Marino, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Palestine all share the highest possible water stress rank with a score of 5.00 across all sectors.
• The country-level indicators have limitations, as they average away significant sub-national variations in countries such as Brazil, China, and the United States, and do not account for national governance or investment structures.

APA

Luo, T., Young, R., & Reig, P. (2015). AQUEDUCT PROJECTED WATER STRESS COUNTRY RANKINGS. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/aqueduct-water-stress-country-rankings-technical-note.pdf

Chicago

Luo, Tianyi, Robert Young, and Paul Reig. AQUEDUCT PROJECTED WATER STRESS COUNTRY RANKINGS. World Resources Institute, 2015. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/aqueduct-water-stress-country-rankings-technical-note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Luo |first1=Tianyi |last2=Young |first2=Robert |last3=Reig |first3=Paul |title=AQUEDUCT PROJECTED WATER STRESS COUNTRY RANKINGS |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=August 2015 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/aqueduct-water-stress-country-rankings-technical-note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{luo2015aqueduct, author = {Luo, Tianyi and Young, Robert and Reig, Paul}, title = {{AQUEDUCT PROJECTED WATER STRESS COUNTRY RANKINGS}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2015}, month = aug, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/aqueduct-water-stress-country-rankings-technical-note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }