Aqueduct 4.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators

The document introduces Aqueduct 4.0, a framework by the World Resources Institute that translates complex hydrological data into 13 water risk indicators covering quantity, quality, and reputational concerns. Using the PCR-GLOBWB 2 model and CMIP6 climate forcings, the framework projects water conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three scenarios. Findings indicate that 25 countries are currently exposed to extremely high annual water stress, and by 2050, $70 trillion in GDP (31% of global GDP) will be exposed to high water stress, with India, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey accounting for over half of that figure.

• The Aqueduct 4.0 framework utilizes 13 water risk indicators across quantity, quality, and reputational categories, employing the PCR-GLOBWB 2 global hydrological model for five of these indicators to generate sub-basin data on water supply and use.
• Future water conditions are projected for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on three scenarios: optimistic (SSP 1 RCP 2.6), business-as-usual (SSP 3 RCP 7.0), and pessimistic (SSP 5 RCP 8.5), using CMIP6 climate forcings.
• Currently, 25 countries, representing one-quarter of the global population, face extremely high annual water stress. Approximately 4 billion people (half the world's population) experience water stress for at least one month per year, a figure projected to reach nearly 60% by 2050.
• Economic exposure to high water stress is projected to increase from $15 trillion (24% of global GDP) in 2010 to $70 trillion (31% of global GDP) by 2050, with India, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey representing more than 50% of this exposed GDP.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Aqueduct 4.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators. https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-40-updated-decision-relevant-global-water-risk-indicators

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Aqueduct 4.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-40-updated-decision-relevant-global-water-risk-indicators.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Aqueduct 4.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators |url=https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-40-updated-decision-relevant-global-water-risk-indicators |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendaqueduct, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Aqueduct 4.0: Updated Decision-Relevant Global Water Risk Indicators}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-40-updated-decision-relevant-global-water-risk-indicators}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }