The China-U.S. Climate Agreement: By the Numbers

This fact sheet by the World Resources Institute analyzes the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets announced by the United States and China, comparing them to previous commitments and current trajectories in the context of the global goal to limit warming to 2 degrees C.

• The United States has set a target to reduce GHG emissions by 26-28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025. Achieving this would mean U.S. emissions in 2025 would be lower than at any point in over 40 years, requiring annual GHG reductions to increase from 1.2 percent (2005-2020) to between 2.3 and 2.8 percent for the 2020-2025 period.
• China intends to peak its carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, with an aim to peak earlier. While the government did not specify a peak level, scenarios from the IEA and MIT-Tsinghua suggest a peak around 10 billion metric tons per year. Additionally, China aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its primary energy consumption to approximately 20 percent by 2030.
• Current trajectories for both nations suggest that the new targets require accelerated action. The U.S. was not on track for its 2020 target as of 2012 and must aggressively pursue policies like the President’s Climate Action Plan to meet the 2025 goal. For China, continuing current carbon intensity reductions would lead to emissions leveling off between 2030 and 2040 at 12-14 billion metric tons per year, meaning a 2030 peak requires near-term policy implementation, such as a carbon tax in 2015.
• To align with a global 2-degree-C warming limit, the U.S. and China would need to implement aggressive policies, specifically increasing the price on carbon to ensure emissions decline rapidly through 2050. Alternative equity-based trajectories suggest different paths, such as China peaking immediately after 2015 with international funding, and U.S. emissions dropping below 4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2025.

APA

World Resources Institute (2014). The China-U.S. Climate Agreement: By the Numbers. https://www.wri.org/insights/china-us-climate-agreement-numbers

Chicago

World Resources Institute. The China-U.S. Climate Agreement: By the Numbers. 2014. https://www.wri.org/insights/china-us-climate-agreement-numbers.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=The China-U.S. Climate Agreement: By the Numbers |date=20 November 2014 |url=https://www.wri.org/insights/china-us-climate-agreement-numbers |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitute2014chinaus, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{The China-U.S. Climate Agreement: By the Numbers}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {https://www.wri.org/insights/china-us-climate-agreement-numbers}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }