A Framework for Wildfire Prediction and Loss Assessment: Potential Application in the Financial Sector—Case Study in Yunnan

This working paper presents a climate risk assessment framework using remote sensing and climate projections to evaluate wildfire risks for financial institutions, specifically focusing on the agricultural sector in Yunnan Province.

• The paper introduces a risk assessment framework that utilizes remote sensing data and climate projections as an alternative to traditional physical models to manage wildfire impacts on assets under future climate warming projections.
• In Yunnan Province, historical wildfire losses for five target agricultural crops between 2011 and 2020 were between US$135.8 million and $254.8 million annually, with extreme events causing 15 to 30 percent of these annual losses.
• Analysis of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) in Yunnan Province indicates a shift in peak risk from March and April in historical data to February and March in future projections. Among the scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-45 exhibits the highest mean FWI, followed by SSP1-26, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85, all of which exceed observed values.
• Financial institutions in Yunnan face challenges regarding their capacity and readiness to manage climate-induced risks. Insurance companies are interested in using physical climate risk analysis for parametric and catastrophe insurance, while banks focus on credit risk management.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). A Framework for Wildfire Prediction and Loss Assessment: Potential Application in the Financial Sector—Case Study in Yunnan. https://www.wri.org/research/framework-wildfire-prediction-and-loss-assessment-potential-application-financial-sector

Chicago

World Resources Institute. A Framework for Wildfire Prediction and Loss Assessment: Potential Application in the Financial Sector—Case Study in Yunnan. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/framework-wildfire-prediction-and-loss-assessment-potential-application-financial-sector.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=A Framework for Wildfire Prediction and Loss Assessment: Potential Application in the Financial Sector—Case Study in Yunnan |url=https://www.wri.org/research/framework-wildfire-prediction-and-loss-assessment-potential-application-financial-sector |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendframework, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{A Framework for Wildfire Prediction and Loss Assessment: Potential Application in the Financial Sector—Case Study in Yunnan}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/framework-wildfire-prediction-and-loss-assessment-potential-application-financial-sector}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }