Balancing Water Demands and Increasing Climate Resilience: Establishing a Baseline Water Risk Assessment Model in Ethiopia

The World Resources Institute developed a baseline water risk model for Ethiopia using 2015 data to help decision-makers incorporate water-related climate risk into sectoral planning. The model utilizes geospatially-explicit estimates for irrigation, livestock, domestic, and industrial water use, combined with 36 years of remotely-sensed renewable water resources data. It generates four key indicators: baseline water stress, months of water scarcity, seasonal variability, and interannual variability. The model is intended for national-level scenario analysis and monitoring of Sustainable Development Goal target 6.4.2, though it excludes water storage infrastructure, environmental flow requirements, and transboundary water obligations.

• The baseline water risk model generates four specific indicators to assess water security: baseline water stress (total annual withdrawal relative to available resources), months of water scarcity (months with extremely high water stress), interannual variability (variation between years), and seasonal variability (variation between months).
• To address the lack of a comprehensive location dataset for industries, the model used NASA Nighttime Lights as a proxy for industrial activity, attributing industrial water demand to subbasins based on light brightness. This approach attributed 55% of industrial water demand to the Awash Basin, which is comparable to a SIWI study's estimate of 60%.
• The model's accuracy is limited by significant data gaps and the use of proxies. For example, domestic water demand was estimated using Growth and Transformation (GTP II) targets for 2015-2020, and irrigation efficiency was based on a 44.3% average from the Awash Basin rather than country-wide data.
• Several critical factors were excluded from the model to maintain uniformity or due to lack of data, including environmental flow requirements, transboundary water obligations, and water storage and conveyance infrastructure.
• The model focuses on physical water availability and sectoral competition, meaning it does not account for economic water scarcity caused by insufficient investment in infrastructure or institutional capacity.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Balancing Water Demands and Increasing Climate Resilience: Establishing a Baseline Water Risk Assessment Model in Ethiopia. https://www.wri.org/research/water-demands-climate-resilience-risk-ethiopia

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Balancing Water Demands and Increasing Climate Resilience: Establishing a Baseline Water Risk Assessment Model in Ethiopia. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/water-demands-climate-resilience-risk-ethiopia.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Balancing Water Demands and Increasing Climate Resilience: Establishing a Baseline Water Risk Assessment Model in Ethiopia |url=https://www.wri.org/research/water-demands-climate-resilience-risk-ethiopia |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendbalancing, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Balancing Water Demands and Increasing Climate Resilience: Establishing a Baseline Water Risk Assessment Model in Ethiopia}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/water-demands-climate-resilience-risk-ethiopia}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }