Shaping the Future of Production: Four Contrasting Perspectives in 2030

The report presents four plausible narratives for production in 2030: 'Disrupted', where AI and IoT drive a productivity renaissance; 'Deterred', where cyber warfare between nation-states hampers growth; 'Damaged', where protectionism and 'islandization' lead to economic stratification; and 'Devolved', where climate crisis and distrust in institutions drive a shift toward hyper-localization and the circular economy.

• In the 'Disrupted' scenario, the convergence of AI, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and 3D printing transforms the value chain, leading to a 'weightless' economy where value is driven by R&D, data, and marketing rather than commodities.
• The 'Deterred' scenario envisions a 'lost decade of growth and prosperity' caused by a cyber Cold War, where AI-driven hacking of critical infrastructure reduces annual global output growth by an estimated 1.5%.
• The 'Damaged' scenario describes a period of 'islandization' and de-globalization from 2016 to 2026, characterized by a return to economic statism, protectionist tariffs, and a decline in global output growth to 2.6% between 2020 and 2030.
• In the 'Devolved' scenario, severe climate change—with temperatures rising 2°C over 15 years—and a failure of multilateral agreements lead to a 'hyper-localization' movement and a preference for the circular economy.
• The report identifies five core technologies with immediate impact on production: analytics and artificial intelligence (AI), the internet of things (IoT), robotics and automation, wearable devices, and additive manufacturing (3D printing).
• Across multiple scenarios, the transition to automated production creates significant labor risks, ranging from a 'stranded class of workers' in the Disrupted scenario to massive unemployment and civil unrest in the Deterred and Damaged scenarios.
• The 'Devolved' scenario suggests a shift toward 'distributed' governance and the '100-mile rule', where production is handled by small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using mobile urban manufacturing units.

APA

World Economic Forum (2017). Shaping the Future of Production: Four Contrasting Perspectives in 2030. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_Shaping_Future_Production_.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Shaping the Future of Production: Four Contrasting Perspectives in 2030. 2017. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_Shaping_Future_Production_.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Shaping the Future of Production: Four Contrasting Perspectives in 2030 |date=March 2017 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_Shaping_Future_Production_.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2017shaping, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Shaping the Future of Production: Four Contrasting Perspectives in 2030}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_Shaping_Future_Production_.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }