White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition

The document outlines two primary narratives for the energy transition: a 'Gradual' path, where fossil fuel demand remains high and the Paris Agreement goals are missed, and a 'Rapid' path, where disruptive technologies and policies lead to a peak in fossil fuel demand during the 2020s. It analyzes differences in how these narratives view energy supply (stock vs. flow), technology growth (linear vs. exponential), policy responses, and emerging market pathways. The paper provides specific 2030 milestones, such as solar electricity costs of $20-30 per MWh and EV market shares over 30%, to determine which narrative is prevailing.

• The 'Gradual' narrative posits that the global energy system possesses an inertia that makes it incompatible with the Paris Agreement, suggesting that the energy world of tomorrow will look similar to today with fossil fuel demand rising for the foreseeable future.
• The 'Rapid' narrative argues that new clean energy technologies and policies will reshape markets and consumption, leading to a peak in fossil fuel demand during the 2020s and providing a pathway to meet Paris Agreement goals.
• A fundamental difference between the narratives is the focus on energy supply: Gradual advocates focus on total demand (stock), while Rapid advocates focus on the change in supply (flow), arguing that new technologies will soon supply all incremental growth.
• The narratives differ on technology growth projections; Gradual models assume linear growth, whereas Rapid models assume exponential 'S curves' of growth for technologies like solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs).
• Rapid advocates suggest that emerging markets, specifically China and India, will 'leapfrog' traditional fossil-fuel-based development in favor of cheaper, less polluting renewable technologies.
• The 'Rapid' narrative anticipates an 'Inevitable Policy Response' where governments are forced by environmental deterioration to implement aggressive regulations, such as carbon taxes, to curtail fossil fuel demand.
• The document identifies three specific demand peaks expected in the 2020s under a Rapid transition: peak demand for new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, peak demand for fossil fuels in electricity, and peak demand for all fossil fuels.
• To validate the Rapid narrative by 2030, the paper sets specific targets: solar electricity costs at $20-30 per MWh, advanced lithium-ion batteries at $50-100 per kWh, and carbon taxes of $20 per tonne implemented on approximately half of emissions.

APA

World Economic Forum (2019). White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_the_speed_of_the_energy_transition.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition. 2019. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_the_speed_of_the_energy_transition.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition |date=September 2019 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_the_speed_of_the_energy_transition.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2019white, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2019}, month = sep, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_the_speed_of_the_energy_transition.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }