Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia

The report argues that while individual countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can achieve short-term economic wins, long-term sustainable prosperity requires regional collaboration to maximize energy resources, integrate into global supply chains, diversify economic bases, and develop a high-standard workforce. It highlights that the region currently suffers from high 'economic borders' and low intra-regional trade, with 96% of exports going outside the region. To address this, the report presents three 2035 scenarios: 'Split Up' (a world of protectionist trading blocs), 'Southern Gateway' (a digital, knowledge-based economy dominated by newly advanced economies), and 'Climate Pressure' (a global economy disrupted by climate-related financial crises). The report suggests that collaborative strategies—such as becoming an inter-regional broker, creating digital supply chains, or developing green initiatives—offer higher gains and greater resilience than unilateral actions.

• The South Caucasus and Central Asia region is characterized by extreme economic heterogeneity and low internal connectivity, with 96% of exports directed outside the region.
• The region faces exceptionally high 'economic borders' compared to advanced economies, which act as a significant barrier to both intra-regional and global economic integration.
• Reducing supply chain barriers—such as transportation costs, customs procedures, and corruption—could have a transformative impact, potentially raising the region's GDP by 8% and exports by 65%.
• Political tensions have created a state of 'frozen economic resources,' resulting in massive opportunity costs; improved collaboration could potentially increase GDP growth by 30-38% for the South Caucasus and 50-100% for Central Asia over a decade.
• In the 'Split Up' scenario for 2035, the global economy is fragmented into protectionist blocs (Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans), risking the region's isolation unless it develops its own regional market or acts as an inter-regional broker.
• The 'Southern Gateway' scenario envisions a 2035 economy that is digital and knowledge-based, where the region can overcome its landlocked status by leapfrogging into immaterial supply chains and leveraging a 'tech nomad' workforce.
• The 'Climate Pressure' scenario describes a future where climate-related natural disasters trigger a global liquidity crisis, threatening the region's oil and gas industry and necessitating a transition toward green initiatives like hydropower.
• While unilateral reforms are possible, the report concludes that collaborative regional action is essential for sustainable prosperity because it avoids duplication, increases leverage, and builds resilience against regional instabilities.

APA

World Economic Forum (2014). Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenarios_SouthCaucasusCentralAsia_Report_2014.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia. 2014. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenarios_SouthCaucasusCentralAsia_Report_2014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia |date=September 2014 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenarios_SouthCaucasusCentralAsia_Report_2014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2014scenarios, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2014}, month = sep, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenarios_SouthCaucasusCentralAsia_Report_2014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }