The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025

The report outlines three divergent paths for the UAE to 2025: 'The Fertile Gulf' (high growth and innovation), 'Oasis' (stability amidst regional turmoil), and 'Sandstorm' (economic and social decline). It identifies the ability to implement institutional reforms and maintain internal stability as the critical focal questions for the country's future. The analysis emphasizes the necessity of upgrading human capital and improving governance to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons and mitigate environmental degradation.

• The UAE's future is primarily determined by two focal questions: the ability of leaders to implement economic and political reforms and enforce the rule of law, and the capacity to maintain internal stability against a complex regional environment.
• In 'The Fertile Gulf' scenario, the UAE becomes a global innovation hub with a market-driven economy where non-oil sectors contribute more than 90% of real GDP by 2018, supported by high-speed rail links to Riyadh and beyond.
• The 'Oasis' scenario depicts the UAE as a stable, government-driven economy that leverages GCC integration to minimize regional volatility, though it faces limited political reform and widening income disparities.
• The 'Sandstorm' scenario describes a future of economic degeneration and social instability triggered by a 2009 US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, leading to a collapse in business confidence, capital flight, and home-grown terrorism.
• Education and innovation are identified as critical themes; the UAE must ensure its education system provides nationals with skills demanded by the private sector to redress workforce demographic imbalances.
• Environmental degradation is a persistent risk across scenarios, with specific threats including water scarcity, coastal degradation, and a loss of over 60% of coral reefs.
• The report highlights the 'Three Pillars Policy' (instituted in 2009) as a framework for encouraging public-private partnerships, economic diversification, and improved governance.
• The UAE's financial sector has evolved into a world-class hub, with the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) establishing a reputation for transparency and the emergence of 'mega-banks' to compete regionally.

APA

World Economic Forum (2007). The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_UAEWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025. 2007. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_UAEWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025 |date=2007 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_UAEWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2007united, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_UAEWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }