The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025

The report explores three divergent paths for Saudi Arabia to 2025: 'Oasis', 'Sandstorm', and 'The Fertile Gulf'. These scenarios are built around focal questions regarding the KSA's ability to implement governance reforms and maintain internal stability amidst regional uncertainty. The analysis emphasizes that education, innovation, and leadership are the primary drivers for reducing oil reliance and achieving sustainable prosperity.

• The future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is primarily driven by two focal questions: whether leaders can implement necessary economic and political reforms and enforce the rule of law, and whether the country can maintain internal stability against a complex regional situation.
• Education and innovation are identified as critical for the KSA to reduce national unemployment and its reliance on foreign labour by ensuring the workforce can support a growing private sector.
• The 'Oasis' scenario envisions a future where the KSA achieves substantial institutional reforms and technocratic governance, maintaining stability and growth despite ongoing regional challenges.
• The 'Sandstorm' scenario describes a negative cycle where regional instability and internal unrest lead the government to prioritize security over reform, resulting in economic hardship and a collapse of social services.
• The 'Fertile Gulf' scenario presents a future of high globalization and regional peace, where the KSA leads regional integration and implements bold reforms, resulting in a diversified economy and increased public participation.
• Across all scenarios, the KSA's GDP growth remains highly correlated with oil prices, although the 'Fertile Gulf' and 'Oasis' paths show a stronger growth in the non-oil sector.
• Environmental pressures, specifically chronic water shortages and pollution, are identified as significant threats to the quality of life in the KSA.
• The report highlights that the KSA's resource wealth creates a fundamental challenge: how to distribute development benefits across the population while overcoming pressures that could hinder sustainable prosperity.

APA

World Economic Forum (2007). The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_SoudiaArabiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025. 2007. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_SoudiaArabiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025 |date=2007 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_SoudiaArabiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2007kingdom, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2007}, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_SoudiaArabiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }