China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

The report presents three divergent futures for China up to 2025: 'New Silk Road', where effective reforms and global integration lead to balanced growth; 'Regional Ties', where protectionism in the West drives China to lead an integrated Asian economic sphere; and 'Unfulfilled Promise', where failed structural reforms and social instability lead to economic stagnation.

• The 'New Silk Road' scenario envisions a China that achieves balanced development through effective institutional reforms, including the privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the separation of judicial, legislative, and executive powers.
• In the 'Regional Ties' scenario, a protectionist global environment—specifically from Europe and North America—forces China to pivot toward an 'Asian Economic Region' (AER) established in 2017 to sustain growth.
• The 'Unfulfilled Promise' scenario describes a future where a lack of structural reforms, fear of social unrest ('luan'), and corruption lead to plummeting economic productivity and soaring income inequality.
• Across the scenarios, the report identifies critical uncertainties regarding China's ability to implement internal reforms and the nature of its relationship with the rest of the world.
• The report highlights severe environmental challenges in China, noting that as of 2006, two-thirds of its 600 cities failed to meet air quality standards and 110 cities faced severe water shortages.
• In the 'Regional Ties' scenario, China leads the creation of several regional institutions between 2017 and 2020, including the Asian Monetary Fund (2018), the Asian Free Trade Area (2019), and the Asian Security and Defence Council (2020).
• The document identifies 'wild cards'—low-probability but high-impact events—that could disrupt any scenario, including a conflict over Taiwan's independence, a major earthquake in Beijing, or a breakdown of the rural health system leading to epidemics.

APA

World Economic Forum (2006). China and the World: Scenarios to 2025. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_ChinaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. China and the World: Scenarios to 2025. 2006. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_ChinaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=China and the World: Scenarios to 2025 |date=2006 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_ChinaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2006china, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{China and the World: Scenarios to 2025}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2006}, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_ChinaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }