The Choreography Needed for Net-Zero Industry Transition

The document highlights a widening gap between net-zero ambitions and implementation, particularly in heavy-emitting sectors like steel, aviation, and shipping. It identifies key obstacles, including a lack of commercial incentives for innovation, insufficient policy frameworks, and high investment risks. To overcome these, the paper argues for 'choreographing' coalitions of governments, industry, and finance to share the 'green premium' of new technologies, establish proof-of-concept by 2030, and create a self-sustaining pipeline of commercial projects through mechanisms like green offtake agreements and industrial clusters.

• To remain on a 1.5°C trajectory by 2030, heavy-emitting sectors must achieve specific milestones: steel requires 70-113 (near-) zero-emission plants producing 280 million tonnes annually; trucking needs 6-12 million zero-emission trucks; aviation requires 250-350 Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) plants; shipping needs at least 200 deep-sea zero-emission ships; and concrete requires over 20 commercial-scale CCUS facilities.
• Significant global gaps exist in clean energy deployment and investment: annual solar additions must reach 630 GW and wind 390 GW by 2030. Annual clean energy investment needs to increase to $4 trillion by 2030, up from $750 billion in 2021, with a total requirement of $100 trillion to $150 trillion to reach global net-zero by mid-century.
• The transition is hindered by a lack of incentives for energy-intensive industries to innovate, as traditional fossil-fuel business models remain highly profitable. For example, in Q1 2022, Shell and BP saw profits nearly triple and more than double respectively due to soaring oil and gas prices.
• Investment in the transition is stalled by long investment horizons, high upfront capital costs, and the risk that investing in high-emitting assets to transition them from 'grey to green' will temporarily increase the carbon intensity of investor portfolios.
• To avoid failure in reaching 2050 goals, critical low-carbon technologies—including sustainable fuels, low-carbon steel, and green hydrogen—must demonstrate proof-of-concept before 2030 to allow for sufficient commercial scaling.
• The document proposes a 'flywheel' approach to industry decarbonization using public-private coalitions to provide demand signals via green offtake agreements, de-risk projects through philanthropic and public finance, and implement policies such as carbon pricing and green public procurement standards.
• Collaborative models like the HYBRIT initiative in Sweden, which uses green hydrogen for fossil-free steel, and the formation of green industrial clusters, demonstrate how aggregating demand and sharing risks can create prototype investment cases.

APA

World Economic Forum (2022). The Choreography Needed for Net-Zero Industry Transition. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GFC_Net_Zero_Choreography_Paper_2022.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. The Choreography Needed for Net-Zero Industry Transition. 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GFC_Net_Zero_Choreography_Paper_2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=The Choreography Needed for Net-Zero Industry Transition |date=June 2022 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GFC_Net_Zero_Choreography_Paper_2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2022choreography, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{The Choreography Needed for Net-Zero Industry Transition}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GFC_Net_Zero_Choreography_Paper_2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }