Chief Economists Outlook

The November 2021 Chief Economists Outlook assesses the global economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting a growing divide between high- and low-income countries regarding vaccine access and fiscal support. It examines the drivers of inflation, the potential for a 'war for talent' in green and digital skills, and the risks of global economic fragmentation. The document argues that while monetary and fiscal policies successfully mitigated initial pandemic shocks, future stability depends on global coordination for vaccine distribution, corporate tax reform, and the implementation of carbon pricing to achieve net-zero goals.

• A significant disparity exists in pandemic recovery based on vaccine and fiscal access; as of October 6, 2021, only 3.7% of people in low-income countries had received at least one vaccine dose, compared to 61% in high-income countries.
• Government fiscal measures in advanced economies successfully prevented a massive wave of bankruptcies and avoided significant 'zombification' of firms; for SMEs, failure rates increased by 4.3 percentage points, whereas they would have risen by 9 percentage points without support.
• There is expert disagreement on whether current inflation is driven by overheating (excess demand) or stagflation (rising supply costs), though overheating is currently viewed as a higher risk in advanced economies.
• The green transition is identified as a potential long-term driver of price increases, as energy costs are expected to remain elevated during the shift to renewables and the realization of productivity gains from green investments.
• Labor markets are experiencing wage pressures across both low- and high-skilled roles; specifically, a 'war for talent' is emerging in green and digital skills due to shifting demands and a lack of adequate reskilling systems.
• Global economic integration faces medium-term fragmentation risks driven by a shift from 'just in time' to 'just in case' production logic, environmental policies moving production closer to markets, and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.
• While there is a consensus that a carbon tax is the most efficient tool for carbon neutrality, significant political-economy obstacles make it unlikely that a global price for carbon at the level needed to keep warming below 2ºC will be achieved in the next few years.

APA

World Economic Forum (2021). Chief Economists Outlook. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_November_2021.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2021. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_November_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=November 2021 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_November_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2021chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_November_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }