Chief Economists Outlook

The May 2022 Chief Economists Outlook describes a 'perfect storm' of compounding shocks, primarily the war in Ukraine and COVID-19, which have disrupted the global economic recovery. The report highlights rising global inflation, severe food insecurity in developing regions, and a trend toward the fragmentation of global supply chains and integration. It notes that while the US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, policy-makers face difficult trade-offs between combating inflation and avoiding economic contraction, as well as balancing immediate energy security with long-term green energy transitions.

• The global economic outlook has been severely downgraded due to the war in Ukraine and continued pandemic shocks. The IMF revised its 2022 global growth forecast down to 3.6% from a January projection of 4.4%. Russia and Ukraine are projected to see GDP contractions of close to 10% and more than 30%, respectively.
• Inflationary pressures are expected to be high or very high in 2022 for the US (96% of respondents), Europe (92%), and Latin America (86%). This is accompanied by a projected decline in real wages, with 90% of survey respondents expecting average real wages to fall across low-income economies.
• The war in Ukraine is driving a severe global food crisis, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Wheat prices are forecast to reach an all-time high in nominal terms this year, increasing by more than 40%.
• Multinational corporations are expected to restructure supply chains by prioritizing localization and diversification to increase resilience over efficiency. A large majority of respondents believe the realignment of global value chains will follow new geopolitical fault lines.
• Global integration is fragmenting, particularly in markets for goods (79% of respondents), technology (65%), and labour (54%). In contrast, the outlook for services is more split, with only 43% expecting fragmentation.
• Western sanctions are expected to significantly dampen Russia's economic growth, with 87% of respondents expecting a strong or very strong effect on lowering GDP growth in 2022. However, these sanctions are also expected to strongly improve cooperation between Russia and China.
• Despite the 'weaponization' of the US dollar through sanctions, 75% of survey respondents expect its role as a global reserve currency to remain stable over the next three years.
• Energy policy priorities are diverging; while 43% of respondents expect Europe to pivot to greener energy sources in the next three years, most other regions are expected to prioritize energy security based on carbon-intensive sources if they do not take a balanced approach.

APA

World Economic Forum (2022). Chief Economists Outlook. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2022.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=May 2022 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2022chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }