Chief Economists Outlook

The January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook reports a subdued global economic forecast, with 56% of surveyed economists expecting the global economy to weaken over the next year. The report highlights significant regional divergence, with strong growth expected in the US and South Asia, but gloomy prospects for Europe and China. A central focus is the new US administration, which 61% of respondents believe will cause a long-term shift in the global economic trajectory, likely increasing inflation and public debt. The document also details intensifying geoeconomic fragmentation, particularly in goods trade, and a shift toward regionalization and services trade, while warning that such fragmentation will likely increase costs for businesses and consumers and hinder global collaboration on climate change.

• The global economic outlook is subdued and characterized by regional divergence: 56% of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year, while 74% predict weak or very weak growth for Europe. In contrast, the US and South Asia (particularly India) are expected to maintain strong growth.
• The new US administration is expected to trigger a long-term shift in the global economic order rather than a temporary disruption, with 61% of economists viewing it as an inflection point. Major policy changes are anticipated in trade, migration, deregulation, fiscal, industrial, and foreign policy.
• US policy changes are widely expected to be inflationary and increase public debt. 94% of chief economists expect the inflation rate to increase, driven by lower taxes and labour supply shocks from mass deportations, while 97% expect public debt levels to rise.
• Global economic fragmentation is intensifying, most notably in goods trade, where 94% of respondents expect further fragmentation over the next three years. Other areas of increasing fragmentation include labour mobility and the transfer of technology and data.
• Fragmentation is expected to have negative aggregate economic effects, specifically increasing costs for consumers and businesses and weakening collective action on climate change. 81% of respondents believe collaboration on climate change will become more difficult.
• Trade-war dynamics are expected to intensify, with 89% of economists predicting retaliatory trade restrictions between the US and China. Despite this, 48% expect global trade volumes to continue increasing, and there is a continuing shift in trade composition from goods to services (expected by 82%).

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Chief Economists Outlook. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=January 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }