Chief Economists Outlook

The January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook reports a subdued global economic environment characterized by regional growth divergence and persistent uncertainty. While inflation is easing and generative AI offers productivity potential, the outlook is clouded by accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation and a resurgence of inward-looking industrial policies. High-income economies are expected to reap AI benefits more quickly than low-income economies, potentially widening the global technological and economic divide.

• Global economic growth remains weak and uncertain, with 56% of chief economists expecting the global economy to weaken over the next year. Regional divergence is prominent: Europe faces a stark outlook with 77% expecting weak or very weak growth in 2024, while South and East Asia remain the most buoyant regions.
• Inflationary pressures are easing globally, with headline inflation projected to drop to 4.8% in 2024 from 9.2% in 2022. This trend is most pronounced in the US and Europe, though Sub-Saharan Africa (36%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (26%) still show significant expectations for high or very high inflation.
• Geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating, with 69% of chief economists expecting this trend to increase in 2024. This shift is driving a move toward localization (86%) and the strengthening of geoeconomic blocs (80%), which 57% of respondents believe will increase inequality and widen the North-South divide over the next three years.
• There is a resurgence in industrial policies, with 84 countries representing 90% of world GDP adopting industrial strategies since 2013. While two-thirds of economists believe these policies can create new growth hotspots, 79% warn of a growing trade-off between maintaining fiscal stability and building national industry champions.
• Generative AI is expected to significantly boost productivity, but the benefits will be unevenly distributed. 94% of chief economists expect economically significant productivity gains in high-income economies within five years, compared to only 53% for low-income economies.
• The societal impact of AI includes significant concerns regarding employment and trust. A majority of respondents expect job displacement in low-income economies, with 73% not foreseeing a net positive impact on employment. Additionally, 56% in high-income and 44% in low-income economies expect a significant decline in trust this year due to generative AI.

APA

World Economic Forum (2024). Chief Economists Outlook. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January2024.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2024. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January2024.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=January 2024 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January2024.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2024chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2024}, month = jan, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January2024.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }