Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries

The report argues that the retail industry is entering a 'golden age of the consumer' driven by hyperconnectivity and disruptive technologies. It predicts a significant shift in value from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce, with a projected $2.95 trillion in total value at stake for businesses and consumers by 2026. The document emphasizes the need for retailers to evolve physical stores into experiential hubs and adopt new business models such as the sharing and on-demand economies. It also highlights critical societal risks, including job losses due to automation, the decay of communities following store closures, and the environmental impact of last-mile delivery, calling for proactive public-private partnerships to mitigate these effects.

• The retail and CPG landscape is projected to undergo more change in the next 10 years than in the previous 40, driven by empowered consumers and technological innovation.
• Eight disruptive technologies are identified as critical for transformation: IoT, autonomous vehicles/drones, robotics, AI/machine learning, AR/VR, digital traceability, 3D printing, and blockchain. Among these, IoT, AVs, drones, robotics, and AI are expected to be the most transformational due to their impact on labor and efficiency.
• E-commerce penetration is projected to grow from approximately 10% in 2017 to over 40% by 2026. While physical stores will remain the primary revenue source for most large multichannel retailers until 2026, their role will shift from distribution channels to platforms for discovery and interaction.
• A value-at-stake analysis for 2017-2026 estimates $2.95 trillion in potential value for the industry and consumers. Consumers are expected to capture 68% of this value through cost and time savings, while the industry will capture 32%, primarily via value migrating from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce.
• Four emerging business models are identified as high-potential: the next-generation sharing economy (rental/secondary markets), personalization economy (curated subscriptions), on-demand economy (auto-replenishment), and services economy ('Do it for me'). The sharing economy represents the largest value at stake at $1.8 trillion.
• Last-mile delivery is a significant cost and efficiency challenge, with the last leg accounting for approximately 25% of total delivery costs. Proposed solutions include the use of macro-aggregators and standardized containerization.
• Automation and store closures are expected to put 30% to 50% of traditional retail positions—such as cashiers and shelf-stockers—at risk. This necessitates a focus on reskilling the workforce and developing new social contracts for freelancers and independent contractors.
• The shift toward e-commerce and on-demand delivery is increasing environmental costs, specifically through higher CO2 emissions from inefficient delivery routes and increased cardboard and packaging waste.
• In the United States, it is projected that 15% of shopping malls will close over the next decade, with lower-grade malls in secondary or tertiary markets being most affected.

APA

World Economic Forum (2017). Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/CO/WEF_AM17_FutureofRetailInsightReport.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries. 2017. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/CO/WEF_AM17_FutureofRetailInsightReport.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries |date=January 2017 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/CO/WEF_AM17_FutureofRetailInsightReport.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2017shaping, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2017}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/CO/WEF_AM17_FutureofRetailInsightReport.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }