Future of Oil & Gas

The document analyzes a fundamental shift in the oil and gas industry from a 'peak supply' to a 'peak demand' mindset, driven by the US shale boom and the Paris Agreement. It compares various demand scenarios for 2040, including the IEA's New Policies Scenario and the 2°C scenario, noting that the latter would significantly limit oil use. The paper argues that the industry must transition to a leaner, more automated operating model and address severe public trust deficits—stemming from environmental failures and corruption—to maintain its social license to operate and avoid stranded assets.

• The industry's outlook has shifted from fearing a peak in supply to anticipating a potential peak in demand over the coming decades, influenced by the US shale boom and the Paris climate accords.
• Under the IEA's New Policies Scenario, oil demand is projected to rise by 14% from 90.6 million b/d in 2014 to 103.5 million b/d by 2040, with fossil fuels comprising roughly 75% of total primary energy use in 2040.
• In a scenario limiting global warming to 2°C, the IEA's 450 Scenario projects oil demand will peak at 93.7 million b/d in 2020 before falling to 74.1 million b/d by 2040, while coal consumption drops 38%.
• To remain viable in a low-growth or 2°C environment, the industry must move away from tailor-made solutions toward a model based on standardization, repetition, and increased use of artificial intelligence and automation.
• The oil and gas industry faces a severe crisis of trust, having been ranked as the least trusted industry in a 2013 Gallop poll, tied with the tobacco industry.
• Non-technical risks, particularly those related to stakeholders, are a primary obstacle to project development; a Goldman Sachs study found these to be the single biggest issue, with nearly half of project risks being non-technical.
• The industry is urged to adopt independent reporting standards and partner with organizations like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) to restore public and investor confidence.

APA

World Economic Forum (2016). Future of Oil & Gas. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GACFutureofOilandGas_Executive_Summary.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Future of Oil & Gas. 2016. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GACFutureofOilandGas_Executive_Summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Future of Oil & Gas |date=April 2016 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GACFutureofOilandGas_Executive_Summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2016future, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Future of Oil \& Gas}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2016}, month = apr, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GACFutureofOilandGas_Executive_Summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }