How falling oil demand is set to transform international relations

The global energy economy is transitioning from hydrocarbons to low-carbon electricity faster than the energy-forecasting establishment predicts. This shift, driven by climate concerns, air quality, and the falling cost of renewables and electric vehicles, threatens the stability of oil-exporting nations, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. The author argues that while oil geopolitics defined the 20th century, the widespread availability of renewables may reduce the strategic conflicts associated with fuel supply and transit routes.

• The energy-forecasting 'establishment' is underestimating the speed and depth of the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, partly due to 'group think', the institutional culture of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the need for international oil companies (IOCs) to maintain shareholder confidence.
• The transition to lower oil demand is primarily triggered by climate change concerns and urban air quality, and is reinforced by the decreasing cost of renewables and the rapid market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs).
• Oil-exporting countries that fail to diversify their economies will be highly vulnerable to falling demand, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region facing a particular risk of increased state failure and subsequent migration problems for Europe.
• The shift to renewables may alter the geopolitical status quo because renewable energy is widely produced and not constrained by the agendas of dominant suppliers or the disruption of strategic transit routes, unlike oil.

APA

Stevens, P. (2019). How falling oil demand is set to transform international relations. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/how-falling-demand-for-oil-is-set-to-transform-international-relations/

Chicago

Stevens, Paul. How falling oil demand is set to transform international relations. World Economic Forum, 2019. https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/how-falling-demand-for-oil-is-set-to-transform-international-relations/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stevens |first1=Paul |title=How falling oil demand is set to transform international relations |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=20 August 2019 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/how-falling-demand-for-oil-is-set-to-transform-international-relations/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stevens2019how, author = {Stevens, Paul}, title = {{How falling oil demand is set to transform international relations}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/how-falling-demand-for-oil-is-set-to-transform-international-relations/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }