What is a fair cut in carbon emissions?

The authors argue that 'fairness' in climate commitments can be quantified by linking emission cuts to income per capita and historical emission growth. By analyzing pledges leading up to the 2014 Lima Summit, the study finds that most countries, including the US and China, are proposing targets that align with a statistical relationship where richer countries accept steeper cuts relative to their 'Business as Usual' paths. The document suggests this formulaic approach can serve as a scorecard to pressure less ambitious nations and guide the setting of 2030 targets.

• The authors propose three core principles to quantify fair emission targets: 'Latecomer catch-up' (countries with rapid emission increases should reduce them, though not instantly), 'Progressivity' (richer countries should accept larger cuts relative to their 'Business as Usual' path), and 'Cost' (cuts should not result in disproportionately large economic costs for any single country).
• Statistical analysis of targets from the Kyoto Protocol and Cancun Agreement shows a consistent relationship between wealth and ambition: every 10% increase in income per capita corresponded to an agreed emissions reduction of 1.4% relative to BAU at Kyoto, and 1.6% at Cancun.
• Analysis of pledges for the 2014 Lima Summit indicates that countries are continuing to follow this fairness relationship, with each 10.0% increase in income associated with a 1.4% more ambitious cut on average.
• The United States and China are both proposing 2020 targets that are close to the established fairness relationship and constitute approximately their 'fair share' of the global total.
• Certain countries are identified as falling short of their 'fair share' based on the model: Singapore's target is 23% above its 2005 level, Turkey has not committed to cuts and is increasing coal use, and Moldova is seeking credit for 'hot air' due to economic decline.
• The study notes that 2005 emission levels have replaced 1990 levels as the relevant baseline for current targets, as the 1990 figure is no longer statistically significant in regressions of current pledges.

APA

Bosetti, V., & Frankel, J. (2014). What is a fair cut in carbon emissions? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/nature-and-biodiversity/what-is-a-fair-cut-in-carbon-emissions/

Chicago

Bosetti, Valentina, and Jeffrey Frankel. What is a fair cut in carbon emissions? World Economic Forum, 2014. https://www.weforum.org/stories/nature-and-biodiversity/what-is-a-fair-cut-in-carbon-emissions/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bosetti |first1=Valentina |last2=Frankel |first2=Jeffrey |title=What is a fair cut in carbon emissions? |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=24 November 2014 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/nature-and-biodiversity/what-is-a-fair-cut-in-carbon-emissions/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bosetti2014what, author = {Bosetti, Valentina and Frankel, Jeffrey}, title = {{What is a fair cut in carbon emissions?}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/nature-and-biodiversity/what-is-a-fair-cut-in-carbon-emissions/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }