This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition

The document concludes that the war in Ukraine will likely cause a small acceleration in Europe's energy transition, as the push for energy security aligns with decarbonization goals. While short-term challenges include higher electricity prices and a temporary shift toward coal, the medium-to-long-term effect is driven by faster renewable energy buildout, postponed nuclear retirements, and improved energy efficiency. However, the war may delay electric vehicle (EV) adoption due to rising battery costs and limit the growth of blue hydrogen due to high gas prices.

• The war in Ukraine is expected to result in a small acceleration of Europe's energy transition, with the share of non-fossil energy sources in the energy mix increasing to 34% in 2024, which is 2% higher than pre-war predictions.
• To replace Russian gas in the short term, nuclear production is expected to make up one-third of the shortfall in 2023, while bioenergy from sewage and wastefills is projected to cover 20% of the shortfall by 2024.
• Renewable energy buildout has a slower initial impact but grows more significant over time; by 2030, solar PV and wind are projected to compensate for more than half of the natural gas supply shortfall.
• The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe may be delayed by nearly one year, with the milestone of 50% of new car sales shifting from 2027 to 2028 due to inflated battery costs caused by higher commodity prices.
• The war is expected to lead to a 580Mt or 2.3% reduction in European emissions between 2022 and 2030 compared to a no-war scenario, primarily driven by reduced gas consumption.
• The adoption of blue hydrogen in Europe is expected to remain low and decrease toward 2030 because high gas prices make it less competitive and limit the availability of surplus gas for production.
• The war is projected to cause a 24% decline in gas production in North East Eurasia (including Russia and Ukraine) by 2024 due to insufficient infrastructure to export gas to markets other than Europe.

APA

Alvik, S. (2022). This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/ukraine-war-europe-renewable-energy-transition/

Chicago

Alvik, Sverre. This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition. World Economic Forum, 2022. https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/ukraine-war-europe-renewable-energy-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Alvik |first1=Sverre |title=This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=26 April 2022 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/ukraine-war-europe-renewable-energy-transition/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{alvik2022this, author = {Alvik, Sverre}, title = {{This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/ukraine-war-europe-renewable-energy-transition/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }