How does climate change affect migration?

The analysis finds that climate-driven migration depends on a country's initial income level. In middle-income countries, warming increases incentives to migrate to cities or abroad, potentially boosting GDP per person. In very poor countries, warming worsens liquidity constraints, trapping rural populations in poverty and reducing emigration. The study concludes that climate change is unlikely to drive large-scale migration to OECD countries, as movements are primarily local and directed toward non-OECD destinations within a 1,000km radius.

• The impact of rising temperatures on migration varies by the initial income level of rural populations. In very poor countries, warming is associated with lower emigration and urbanisation rates because declining agricultural productivity worsens liquidity constraints, making it harder for people to afford relocation costs. Conversely, in middle-income countries, the same decline in agricultural productivity increases the incentive to migrate to urban areas or abroad.
• Climate-induced migration in middle-income countries is linked to economic growth, whereas the reduction in migration in poor countries is linked to lower average GDP per person, potentially increasing the income gap between these two groups.
• Temperature increases do not appear to drive large-scale migration to rich OECD countries. Instead, climate-driven emigration is primarily directed toward non-OECD destinations located close to the country of origin, typically within a 1,000km radius.
• Long-run emigration rates in poor and middle-income countries are not significantly influenced by the occurrence of natural disasters such as storms, floods, or droughts, as these events likely trigger temporary or local mobility rather than permanent international or rural-urban migration.

APA

Cattaneo, C., & Peri, G. (2015). How does climate change affect migration? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/economic-growth/how-does-climate-change-affect-migration/

Chicago

Cattaneo, Cristina, and Giovanni Peri. How does climate change affect migration? World Economic Forum, 2015. https://www.weforum.org/stories/economic-growth/how-does-climate-change-affect-migration/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cattaneo |first1=Cristina |last2=Peri |first2=Giovanni |title=How does climate change affect migration? |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=23 November 2015 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/economic-growth/how-does-climate-change-affect-migration/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cattaneo2015how, author = {Cattaneo, Cristina and Peri, Giovanni}, title = {{How does climate change affect migration?}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/economic-growth/how-does-climate-change-affect-migration/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }