Turning Down the Gas in California

The analysis finds that no new natural gas capacity is needed to maintain grid reliability in California through 2030. Depending on carbon caps and the use of battery storage to meet local capacity requirements (LCR), between 28 and 56 of the 89 modeled natural gas plants could be retired. While overall natural gas generation decreases, the report warns that remaining plants may cycle on and off more frequently, potentially increasing NOx emissions and harming air quality in nearby disadvantaged communities.

• Modeling indicates that no additional natural gas generation capacity is required to maintain the reliability of the CAISO grid through 2030, even with significant increases in renewable energy to meet emissions targets.
• The number of natural gas plants that can be retired by 2030 varies by carbon cap: under a 42 MMT cap, 28 plants (23% of CCGT and 24% of peaker capacity) can be retired; under a 30 MMT cap, 56 plants (30% of CCGT and 87% of peaker capacity) can be retired.
• Local Capacity Requirements (LCR) act as a significant barrier to plant retirements, particularly for peakers. Enforcing LCR limits peaker retirements to 24% of fleet capacity regardless of the carbon cap, whereas without LCR, an additional one-third to three-quarters of peaker capacity would be retired.
• The use of long-duration battery storage to satisfy LCR can accelerate the retirement of gas plants. Under a 30 MMT cap, allowing four-hour batteries to meet LCR increases peaker retirements to 87%, but requiring eight-hour batteries reduces peaker retirements back to 24%.
• Retiring natural gas plants has a limited impact on the total amount of natural gas energy generated annually, as lost generation from retired plants is typically offset by other gas plants or imports.
• The transition may lead to a dramatic increase in the frequency of plant starts and stops. By 2030, under a 42 MMT scenario, 16 of 23 non-retired CCGT plants are projected to start up more than 200 times per year, compared to nearly zero starts in 2018.
• A significant number of plants identified for retirement are located in disadvantaged communities. Depending on the carbon cap, up to 23 plants in CalEnviroScreen top 25th percentile census tracts could be retired by 2030.

APA

Specht, M. G., & Wisland, L. M. (2018). Turning Down the Gas in California. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/Turn-Down-Technical-Appendix.pdf

Chicago

Specht, Mark G., and Laura M. Wisland. Turning Down the Gas in California. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2018. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/Turn-Down-Technical-Appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Specht |first1=Mark G. |last2=Wisland |first2=Laura M. |title=Turning Down the Gas in California |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=August 2018 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/Turn-Down-Technical-Appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{specht2018turning, author = {Specht, Mark G. and Wisland, Laura M.}, title = {{Turning Down the Gas in California}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/Turn-Down-Technical-Appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }