Stormy Seas, Rising Risks

The document outlines the technical approach used by the Union of Concerned Scientists to analyze climate risks at specific refineries owned by Valero, Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, and Chevron. It details the data sources for refinery capacity and boundaries, the sea level rise projections based on the IPCC's RCP 4.5 scenario, and the use of the National Weather Service's SLOSH model to simulate storm surge from Category 1–5 hurricanes. Additionally, it explains the criteria used to score company disclosures of physical climate risks based on SEC filings and Ceres methodology.

• The analysis focused on one coastal refining facility for each of the top five U.S. energy companies by crude-refining capacity: Valero (Meraux, Louisiana), Phillips 66 (Linden, New Jersey), Exxon Mobil (Baytown, Texas), Marathon Petroleum (Texas City, Texas), and Chevron (Pascagoula, Mississippi).
• Sea level rise (SLR) projections for 2030, 2050, and 2100 were mapped using the median (50th percentile) projection for the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, which assumes emissions peak around 2040 and then decline.
• The study assessed company disclosures of physical climate risks using SEC Form 10-K filings and tools from Ceres; for four of the five analyzed companies (Valero, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, and Chevron), the disclosure was rated as 'None', while Phillips 66 was rated as 'Poor'.
• Storm surge inundation was modeled using the National Weather Service's SLOSH 'maximum of maximums' (MOMs) to demonstrate the maximum risk for damage from Category 1–5 hurricanes, though the authors note that these represent worst-case scenarios and not a single likely storm path.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2015). Stormy Seas, Rising Risks. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-appendix-a-ucs-2015.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Stormy Seas, Rising Risks. 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-appendix-a-ucs-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Stormy Seas, Rising Risks |date=February 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-appendix-a-ucs-2015.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2015stormy, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Stormy Seas, Rising Risks}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-appendix-a-ucs-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }