Ripe for Retirement

The Union of Concerned Scientists identifies a significant number of U.S. coal-fired power plants that are economically uncompetitive compared to natural gas and wind power. The report argues that retiring these plants, along with those already scheduled for closure, would improve public health and reduce carbon emissions without jeopardizing grid reliability.

• The analysis identifies a range of 153 to 353 coal-fired generating units as 'ripe for retirement' based on economic uncompetitiveness. These units represent 16.4 to 59.0 GW of generating capacity, which supplied between 1.7 and 6.3 percent of total U.S. electricity used in 2009.
• When combined with 288 units (41.2 GW) already scheduled for closure by owners, the total potential coal plant retirements reach 100.2 GW.
• Coal generators identified as ripe for retirement share characteristics with those already slated for closure: they are typically older (averaging 45 years), underutilized (average capacity factor of 47%), and lack modern pollution controls.
• Approximately 40 percent of the coal generating capacity (23.4 GW) deemed ripe for retirement under the high estimate is economically uncompetitive even before adding the costs of required pollution controls.
• The highest concentrations of ripe-for-retirement capacity are in the Southeast and Midwest. Georgia leads all states with more than 7,400 MW of such capacity, followed by Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and Michigan.
• Southern Company owns the most capacity deemed ripe for retirement at 15.6 GW, followed by the Tennessee Valley Authority (5.385 GW), Duke Energy (2.76 GW), American Electric Power (2.355 GW), and FirstEnergy (2.075 GW).
• Retiring the combined 100.2 GW of coal generators could reduce annual CO2 emissions by 245 million to 410 million tons, representing 9.8 to 16.4 percent of 2010 U.S. power sector emissions, depending on the replacement resource.
• The U.S. electricity system can handle these retirements without compromising reliability due to a projected 145.7 GW of excess capacity by 2014, above required reserve margins.
• Underutilized natural gas capacity is a primary near-term replacement option; the existing NGCC fleet operated at only 39 percent of design capacity in 2010.
• Alternative economic scenarios show that low natural gas prices and a carbon price of $15 per ton significantly expand the number of coal generators that are economically uncompetitive.
• Extending the federal production tax credit (PTC) for wind power would make 62.9 GW of coal capacity economically vulnerable compared to wind, compared to 22.1 GW if the credit expires.
• The report warns that over-reliance on natural gas is not a sustainable climate solution due to methane leakage and the fact that it remains a fossil fuel.

APA

Cleetus, R., Clemmer, S., Davis, E., Deyette, J., Downing, J., & Frenkel, S. (2012). Ripe for Retirement. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-Report.pdf

Chicago

Cleetus, Rachel, Steve Clemmer, Ethan Davis, Jeff Deyette, Jim Downing, and Steven Frenkel. Ripe for Retirement. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2012. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cleetus |first1=Rachel |last2=Clemmer |first2=Steve |last3=Davis |first3=Ethan |last4=Deyette |first4=Jeff |last5=Downing |first5=Jim |last6=Frenkel |first6=Steven |title=Ripe for Retirement |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=November 2012 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleetus2012ripe, author = {Cleetus, Rachel and Clemmer, Steve and Davis, Ethan and Deyette, Jeff and Downing, Jim and Frenkel, Steven}, title = {{Ripe for Retirement}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2012}, month = nov, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }