Half the Oil Plan Methodology and Assumptions

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) argues that the U.S. can cut its projected oil use in half by 2035 compared to a 'do-nothing' baseline. By implementing technology and policy advances across transportation, buildings, and industry, the plan estimates a reduction of 11 million barrels per day (mbpd), resulting in gross cost savings of more than $550 billion and the creation of over 1 million net new jobs by 2035.

• The analysis establishes a 'do-nothing' baseline where no efficiency improvements or low-carbon alternatives are adopted after 2013, projecting U.S. oil use to reach 22 million barrels per day by 2035.
• The 'Half the Oil' plan estimates a realistic reduction of 11 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2035, although the analysis suggests potential savings of up to 12 mbpd.
• Achieving the 'Half the Oil' target would result in gross oil cost savings of more than $550 billion in 2035, based on a forecasted oil price of $133 per barrel.
• The plan projects significant emissions reductions across sectors, with passenger cars providing the largest contribution at 902 million metric tons of emissions saved in 2035.
• The implementation of fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards for on-road vehicles is estimated to create more than 1 million net new jobs by 2035.
• Specific technology and efficiency targets for 2035 include increasing passenger car fuel economy to 34.6 mpg and achieving a 45% market share for electric vehicles.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2013). Half the Oil Plan Methodology and Assumptions. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/half-the-oil-methodology.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Half the Oil Plan Methodology and Assumptions. 2013. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/half-the-oil-methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Half the Oil Plan Methodology and Assumptions |date=June 2013 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/half-the-oil-methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2013half, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Half the Oil Plan Methodology and Assumptions}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2013}, month = jun, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/half-the-oil-methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }