Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

The report assesses how rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns will affect the Great Lakes region, predicting warmer, drier summers and increased extreme weather. It details vulnerabilities in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, and human health, while recommending emission reductions and adaptive management.

• Climate models project that by the end of the century, regional temperatures will increase by 5 to 12°F (3 to 7°C) in winter and 5 to 20°F (3 to 11°C) in summer.
• While annual precipitation may rise slightly, the region is expected to grow drier overall due to increased evaporation and transpiration, with summer rain potentially decreasing by up to 50 percent.
• The frequency of heavy 24-hour and multiday rainstorms is expected to continue increasing and may double by the year 2100, raising the risk of flooding.
• Increased summer stratification in lakes is projected to increase the risk of oxygen depletion and the formation of deep-water "dead zones," which can lead to massive fish kills and toxic algal blooms.
• Winter ice cover duration is declining; for example, Lake Mendota's average ice cover decreased from about four months in the mid-1800s to about three months by the late 1990s.
• Climate change is expected to shift fish distributions, with cold-water species like lake trout and whitefish declining in the southern region while warm-water species like smallmouth bass expand northward.
• Agricultural productivity may be negatively impacted by shifts in rain distribution, with wetter periods potentially delaying planting or harvest and dry spells occurring when crops need water.
• The growing season is projected to increase in length, potentially becoming four to nine weeks longer by the end of the century compared to the 1961–1990 average.
• Boreal forests are expected to shrink as warmer temperatures cause many forest species to move northward, though this migration may be hindered by human and geographic barriers.
• Human health risks are expected to increase due to more frequent extreme heat events and a potential rise in vector-borne infectious diseases as warmer temperatures favor the survival of ticks and mosquitoes.
• Lower lake levels are projected to increase costs for shipping due to reduced cargo capacity and the need for more frequent dredging of harbors and channels.

APA

Kling, G. W., Hayhoe, K., Johnson, L. B., Magnuson, J. J., Polasky, S., Robinson, S. K., Shuter, B. J., Wander, M. M., Wuebbles, D. J., Zak, D. R., Lindroth, R. L., Moser, S. C., & Wilson, M. L. (2003). Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/greatlakes_final.pdf

Chicago

Kling, George W., Katharine Hayhoe, Lucinda B. Johnson, John J. Magnuson, Stephen Polasky, Scott K. Robinson, Brian J. Shuter, et al. Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2003. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/greatlakes_final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kling |first1=George W. |last2=Hayhoe |first2=Katharine |last3=Johnson |first3=Lucinda B. |last4=Magnuson |first4=John J. |last5=Polasky |first5=Stephen |last6=Robinson |first6=Scott K. |last7=Shuter |first7=Brian J. |last8=Wander |first8=Michelle M. |last9=Wuebbles |first9=Donald J. |display-authors=etal |title=Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=April 2003 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/greatlakes_final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kling2003confronting, author = {Kling, George W. and Hayhoe, Katharine and Johnson, Lucinda B. and Magnuson, John J. and Polasky, Stephen and Robinson, Scott K. and Shuter, Brian J. and Wander, Michelle M. and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Zak, Donald R. and Lindroth, Richard L. and Moser, Susanne C. and Wilson, Mark L.}, title = {{Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2003}, month = apr, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/greatlakes_final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }