Countdown to Shutdown

The document details the use of the RESOLVE model and the Clean System Power Calculator to evaluate seven scenarios regarding the retirement of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant. It focuses on three global warming emissions targets (46 MMT, 38 MMT, and 30 MMT) by 2030 and compares the effects of a 2025 shutdown versus a 20-year extension to 2045. The analysis specifically aims to estimate the resources needed to replace nuclear capacity without increasing emissions and to calculate the resulting differences in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions.

• The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) utilized the RESOLVE model, a grid capacity expansion tool, to identify the lowest-cost mix of new resources needed to satisfy reliability, emissions reduction, and renewable energy goals.
• The analysis examined seven scenarios based on three 2030 global warming emissions targets—46 MMT, 38 MMT, and 30 MMT—and two assumptions regarding the retirement date of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant (either by 2025 or extended to 2045).
• A custom emissions trajectory (Scenario 7) was developed to determine the specific resources required to replace Diablo Canyon without increasing global warming emissions, targeting a level of 43 MMT by 2030 to match the results of Scenario 2.
• The Clean System Power Calculator was used to estimate criteria air pollution emissions, specifically nitrogen oxides (NOx), for the 46 MMT and 38 MMT pathways, though these results are characterized as estimates because the tool was originally designed for individual load-serving entities rather than overall resource portfolios.

APA

Specht, M. (2021). Countdown to Shutdown. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/countdown-to-shutdown-appendix.pdf

Chicago

Specht, Mark. Countdown to Shutdown. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2021. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/countdown-to-shutdown-appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Specht |first1=Mark |title=Countdown to Shutdown |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=February 2021 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/countdown-to-shutdown-appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{specht2021countdown, author = {Specht, Mark}, title = {{Countdown to Shutdown}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/countdown-to-shutdown-appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }