Climate 2030 Blueprint

The document describes a modeled U.S. cap-and-trade program starting in 2011, aiming to reduce emissions to 3,145 MMTCO2eq by 2030. It outlines the coverage of six major greenhouse gases across multiple sectors, the use of domestic and international offsets, and the mechanisms for banking and withdrawing allowances. The report also discusses the macroeconomic assumptions of the UCS-NEMS model, including revenue recycling and the impact on GDP, and provides a detailed methodology for calculating REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) supply curves for international offsets.

• The modeled emissions cap begins in 2011 at 6,500 MMTCO2eq (9 percent below 2005 levels) and declines to 3,145 MMTCO2eq by 2030, which is 56 percent below 2005 levels. The program aims for further reductions to reach at least 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050, potentially reaching 1,321 MMTCO2eq.
• The program covers six major greenhouse gases—including CO2, methane, nitrous oxides, and fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6)—across the electricity generation, transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors, excluding forests and land-use changes.
• Offset limits are capped at 10 percent for domestic sources and 5 percent for international sources. Modeling indicates that the international offset cap is binding immediately in 2011, whereas the domestic cap only becomes binding in 2021.
• The model utilizes a 'banking and withdrawing' mechanism where firms over-comply and bank allowances until 2024, then begin drawing down those accumulated banks starting in 2025 to meet the cap.
• The UCS-NEMS model predicts a small decrease in real GDP (1.5 percent or less in any given year) relative to the Reference case. The authors note this result is counterintuitive because the model views higher energy prices and lower energy demand as negative, despite the expected increase in consumer purchasing power from lower energy bills.
• International offsets from 2015 to 2030 are based on avoided tropical deforestation (REDD). The supply curves for these offsets incorporate opportunity costs of forestland plus implementation, administrative, and transaction costs, which together total slightly less than $1.00 per ton.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Climate 2030 Blueprint. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-b-cap-and-trade.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate 2030 Blueprint. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-b-cap-and-trade.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate 2030 Blueprint |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-b-cap-and-trade.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndclimate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate 2030 Blueprint}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-b-cap-and-trade.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }