Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution

The document examines how climate change, specifically increasing temperatures, creates a 'climate penalty' that elevates ground-level ozone levels despite efforts to reduce precursor emissions. Using the BenMAP model, it estimates the health incidences and economic costs associated with ozone increases of 1 ppb, 2 ppb, and 7 ppb for the years 2020 and 2050 across various U.S. states.

• Ground-level ozone is formed through complex chemical reactions involving precursor emissions—specifically nitrogen oxides (NOx), methane (CH4), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO)—and is heavily influenced by weather and climatic factors.
• Temperature acts as a primary driver for ozone formation by increasing the rates of chemical reactions and destabilizing peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), which releases hydrogen species necessary for ozone production.
• The document identifies a 'climate penalty factor' of 1.2 ppb/°F, meaning that for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, ozone pollution increases by approximately 1.2 parts per billion, assuming precursor emissions remain constant.
• Regional variations exist in the climate penalty; while most of the U.S. sees a positive correlation between temperature and ozone, the southeastern United States may see suppressed ozone formation due to high VOC emissions (specifically isoprene) and lower NOx levels.
• Using the BenMAP model, the report estimates that a 2 ppb climate penalty in 2020 would lead to significant health impacts across 40 U.S. states, with California experiencing the highest central estimate of acute respiratory symptoms at 442,724 occurrences and the highest central total health costs at $729,189,387.
• The economic valuation of health impacts in the model utilizes a Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) estimate of $6.3 million for premature death, alongside specific costs for hospital stays ($15,647), emergency room visits ($261), and acute respiratory symptoms ($98 per day).

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-and-ozone-pollution-tech-appendix.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-and-ozone-pollution-tech-appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-and-ozone-pollution-tech-appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndclimate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-and-ozone-pollution-tech-appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }