Blocked from the Ballot Box

The report identifies 'electoral cumulative inequalities' where precincts with majority populations of color consistently exhibit lower voter turnout and higher ballot rejection rates compared to majority-White precincts. Analyzing data from battleground counties in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the authors argue that these disparities are systemic and not solely explained by state-level factors. The study highlights that communities with the lowest turnout also face the highest rates of ballot rejections, further diminishing their political representation. The authors advocate for more equitable ballot design and increased election data transparency to mitigate these inequities.

• Majority-White precincts consistently had significantly higher voter turnout than precincts with a majority group of color or racially plural precincts across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections.
• Registered voter turnout in majority-Black and majority-Hispanic precincts declined between 2016 and 2024, falling from 64% to 56% and 61% to 53% respectively.
• The report identifies a correlation between low turnout and high ballot rejection rates, suggesting that the same communities are doubly burdened by barriers to voting and the failure of cast ballots to be counted.
• In the 2016 general election, majority-Hispanic and majority-Native precincts showed the most significant increases in ballot rejection rates compared to majority-White precincts, with Native precincts seeing an estimated increase of 8.57 percentage points.
• Analysis of the 2024 election shows that majority-API and majority-Hispanic precincts had the greatest estimated impact on ballot rejection rates, with increases of 1.96 and 1.25 percentage points respectively relative to majority-White precincts.
• The authors argue that racial disparities in turnout and rejections are systemic and cannot be explained solely by state-level variables such as voter access or electoral competition.
• The report notes that the lack of comprehensive precinct-level data, particularly for 2024 ballot rejections in many sample counties, demonstrates a widespread problem with election data transparency.
• The report suggests that disparities in ballot rejections may be caused by a combination of flawed ballot design (voter-centric perspective) and the implicit biases or discretionary policies of local election administrators (administrative-centric perspective).

APA

Gordon-Rogers, L., & Nafa, R. (2025). Blocked from the Ballot Box. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Blocked%20from%20the%20Ballot%20Box_report_2.27.26_0.pdf

Chicago

Gordon-Rogers, Liza, and Rose Nafa. Blocked from the Ballot Box. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2025. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Blocked%20from%20the%20Ballot%20Box_report_2.27.26_0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gordon-Rogers |first1=Liza |last2=Nafa |first2=Rose |title=Blocked from the Ballot Box |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2025 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Blocked%20from%20the%20Ballot%20Box_report_2.27.26_0.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gordonrogers2025blocked, author = {Gordon-Rogers, Liza and Nafa, Rose}, title = {{Blocked from the Ballot Box}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Blocked%20from%20the%20Ballot%20Box_report_2.27.26_0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }