WHAT DOES THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST GST SIGNIFY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS OF THE NCQG?

The document analyzes the first Global Stocktake's signals on mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, highlighting the systemic challenges for the Global South. It argues that while the GST provides historic targets for transitioning away from fossil fuels and tripling renewables, it lacks concrete financial commitments. The brief emphasizes the need for the NCQG to address the 'trilemma' of climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility by expanding fiscal space through non-debt instruments and reforming the international financial architecture.

• The first Global Stocktake (GST) established historic signals for the energy transition, including the goal of 'Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems' and 'Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030'.
• Developing countries face a conflict between ensuring energy access—with 775 million people lacking electricity and 2 billion lacking clean cooking fuels—and the requirement to transition away from fossil fuels.
• The GST outcome includes 'loopholes' regarding the role of 'transitional fuels' and the inclusion of carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture and utilization (CCU), and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) without sufficient safeguards, which may allow oil and gas industries to maintain business-as-usual models.
• Halting and reversing deforestation by 2030 is critical, yet developing countries face diverse barriers: Africa is primarily driven by small-scale subsistence agriculture, while Latin America is dominated by large-scale cropping and livestock grazing.
• Adaptation efforts in the Global South remain fragmented and underfunded, with a finance gap estimated between USD 194 billion and USD 366 billion per year, as international public flows are 10 to 18 times lower than the estimated annual costs of USD 215 billion to USD 387 billion.
• Loss and damage is a current reality for developing nations, but the GST provided only limited signals focused on research and coherence, failing to address the massive economic losses, which were estimated at a midpoint of USD 671 billion in 2030.
• Developing countries are trapped in a 'trilemma' between climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, exacerbated by the fact that 80% of publicly declared climate financing in 2021 consisted of loans and non-concessional instruments.
• The total climate finance needs for developing countries for the pre-2030 period are estimated at USD 5.8–5.9 trillion, making the current pledges of approximately $12 billion from COP28 a mere fraction (about 0.2%) of the required resources.
• The document recommends that the NCQG promote innovative funding, such as global carbon taxes on fossil fuel trade, maritime transport, and aviation, and the socially-responsible reform of fossil fuel subsidies, which reached an all-time high of over USD 1 trillion in 2022.
• There is an urgent need to reform the international financial architecture, including Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), to shift from a focus on debt-based instruments to grants and concessional finance to avoid increasing the debt burden of the Global South.

APA

Carbajal, A. L., Fernández, E. F., & Patiño, D. B. (2024). WHAT DOES THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST GST SIGNIFY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS OF THE NCQG? Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/INFORME-Perspectives-of-the-Global-South.pdf

Chicago

Carbajal, Alejandra López, Edgar Fernández Fernández, and Diana Barba Patiño. WHAT DOES THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST GST SIGNIFY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS OF THE NCQG? Transforma, 2024. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/INFORME-Perspectives-of-the-Global-South.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carbajal |first1=Alejandra López |last2=Fernández |first2=Edgar Fernández |last3=Patiño |first3=Diana Barba |title=WHAT DOES THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST GST SIGNIFY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS OF THE NCQG? |publisher=Transforma |date=May 2024 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/INFORME-Perspectives-of-the-Global-South.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbajal2024what, author = {Carbajal, Alejandra López and Fernández, Edgar Fernández and Patiño, Diana Barba}, title = {{WHAT DOES THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST GST SIGNIFY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS OF THE NCQG?}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/INFORME-Perspectives-of-the-Global-South.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }