ESCENARIO RUTA A CERO NETO 2050

The report outlines a 'Route to Net Zero' for Colombia by 2050, arguing that current national energy plans are insufficient for carbon neutrality. It proposes a strategy centered on high electrification (targeting 60% of final energy consumption by 2050), a massive expansion of non-conventional renewable energy (FNCER), and a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. The analysis emphasizes that decarbonization must be paired with a 'just transition' framework to protect communities and workers dependent on the mining and hydrocarbon sectors, particularly in regions like La Guajira and Cesar.

• The energy sector is responsible for 31% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Colombia, with the transport subsector being the primary driver of these emissions.
• Current government energy scenarios, including the 'Disruption' scenario of the National Energy Plan (PEN), are insufficient for carbon neutrality, as the latter still estimates 53 Mt CO2eq emissions from final energy consumption by 2050.
• Transforma recommends increasing the share of electricity in Colombia's final energy consumption to 60% by 2050, compared to the 18% recorded in 2019.
• To support high electrification and green hydrogen production, Colombia's renewable energy capacity must increase from 12 GW in 2020 to between 100 GW and 130 GW by 2050.
• The report recommends a total phase-out of unabated coal-fired power plants by 2035 and natural gas plants by 2040.
• For the transport sector, the report suggests that 80-90% of the passenger vehicle fleet should be electric or hydrogen-powered by 2050, and recommends prohibiting the sale of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035.
• Bioenergy is recommended to cover 9-11% of final energy demand by 2050, focusing on sustainable sources and efficient wood stoves in rural areas to replace traditional hearths.
• Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS) is viewed as a residual alternative due to high costs and technological uncertainty; the report warns against relying on it as a primary strategy to justify continued fossil fuel use.
• A 'Just Transition' is essential to prevent increased poverty and unemployment in regions heavily dependent on mining and hydrocarbons, such as Cesar and La Guajira, where soil degradation and water issues hinder economic diversification.

APA

Restrepo, G. P., Rueda, M. A., Gaviria, J. A., Mejía, L. F., Pinzón, Á. D., Arango, V., Giraldo, A. M. M., Parra, P. A. Y., & Montoya, F. A. C. (2022). ESCENARIO RUTA A CERO NETO 2050. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/220805-Diseno-Agenda-Energetica-en-Colombia.pdf

Chicago

Restrepo, Giovanni Pabón, María Andrea Rueda, Jessica Arias Gaviria, Laura Flechas Mejía, Álvaro Daniel Pinzón, Viviana Arango, Ana María Mogollón Giraldo, Paola Andrea Yanguas Parra, and Felipe Alberto Corral Montoya. ESCENARIO RUTA A CERO NETO 2050. Transforma, 2022. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/220805-Diseno-Agenda-Energetica-en-Colombia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Restrepo |first1=Giovanni Pabón |last2=Rueda |first2=María Andrea |last3=Gaviria |first3=Jessica Arias |last4=Mejía |first4=Laura Flechas |last5=Pinzón |first5=Álvaro Daniel |last6=Arango |first6=Viviana |last7=Giraldo |first7=Ana María Mogollón |last8=Parra |first8=Paola Andrea Yanguas |last9=Montoya |first9=Felipe Alberto Corral |title=ESCENARIO RUTA A CERO NETO 2050 |publisher=Transforma |date=August 2022 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/220805-Diseno-Agenda-Energetica-en-Colombia.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{restrepo2022escenario, author = {Restrepo, Giovanni Pabón and Rueda, María Andrea and Gaviria, Jessica Arias and Mejía, Laura Flechas and Pinzón, Álvaro Daniel and Arango, Viviana and Giraldo, Ana María Mogollón and Parra, Paola Andrea Yanguas and Montoya, Felipe Alberto Corral}, title = {{ESCENARIO RUTA A CERO NETO 2050}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/220805-Diseno-Agenda-Energetica-en-Colombia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }