Activos varados, un riesgo real: implicaciones para Colombia

The document examines the risk of 'stranded assets'—assets that lose economic value before the end of their useful life—driven by climate regulations and the global transition to low-carbon economies. It highlights that Latin America, despite low emissions, holds significant fossil fuel reserves that may become unexploitable to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. For Colombia, the risk is acute due to a high economic dependence on oil, gas, and coal exports. The report provides a qualitative framework for investors to identify these risks and points toward renewable energy, specifically solar photovoltaics and wind, as profitable alternatives.

• To limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C, it is estimated that between 60% and 84% of fossil fuel reserves in Latin America must remain underground, with coal requiring the most significant reductions, followed by oil and gas.
• Latin America is the second region globally with the highest amount of fossil fuel reserves, and it is projected that 66% to 81% of its oil reserves will not be used by 2035 under Paris Agreement demand levels. Additionally, 10% to 16% of fossil-fuel-based power plants may need to be abandoned by 2050 to meet a 2°C budget.
• Colombia's economy is highly vulnerable to stranded asset risks because fossil fuels represented 54% of total exports and approximately 6% of GDP in 2019. Specifically, oil and coal accounted for about 40% and 15% of total exports, respectively.
• Colombia faces a significant risk of stranded coal reserves; while the country has reserves estimated to last 180 more years, its commitment to a net-zero economy by 2050 implies that at least 150 years of these reserves will not be exploited.
• The market for Colombian coal has shifted significantly due to energy transition policies in Europe, with total exports to the continent dropping from 55% in 2011 to approximately 9% in 2020, particularly influenced by partners like the Netherlands and Germany.
• Global financial trends show a shift toward sustainable assets, exemplified by BlackRock's strategy to remove investments in companies that generate more than 25% of their revenue from coal production.
• Renewable energy is becoming more cost-effective than fossil fuels, with solar photovoltaic energy identified as the cheapest source. Over the last ten years, costs have fallen by approximately 80% for solar PV, 40% for onshore wind, and 30% for offshore wind.

APA

Transforma (n.d.). Activos varados, un riesgo real: implicaciones para Colombia. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20201124-Activos-varados-un-riesgo-real.pdf

Chicago

Transforma. Activos varados, un riesgo real: implicaciones para Colombia. n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20201124-Activos-varados-un-riesgo-real.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Transforma |title=Activos varados, un riesgo real: implicaciones para Colombia |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20201124-Activos-varados-un-riesgo-real.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{transformandactivos, author = {{Transforma}}, title = {{Activos varados, un riesgo real: implicaciones para Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20201124-Activos-varados-un-riesgo-real.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }