Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia

This policy brief by Transforma analyzes the impact of phasing out coal and gas-fired thermal power plants on Colombia's electricity supply-demand balance between 2025 and 2038. While average energy balances remain positive, the study identifies significant risks to 'firm energy' (guaranteed capacity during critical conditions like droughts), projecting deficits in all phase-out scenarios. The document emphasizes that current planned renewable projects are insufficient to offset the loss of thermal backup and suggests a combination of increased renewable capacity, improved transmission infrastructure, and demand-side management to maintain system stability.

• The average energy balance for the 2025-2038 period remains positive across all analyzed scenarios, as new planned projects are expected to compensate for the energy lost from retired thermal plants. By 2038, the energy supply surplus is projected to be 36.9% for the coal phase-out scenario, 19.9% for the gas phase-out scenario, and 8.3% for the combined coal and gas phase-out scenario.
• Phasing out thermal plants leads to deficits in 'firm energy' (the maximum energy a plant can continuously deliver during low hydrology conditions). The most critical scenario is the synchronous phase-out of both coal and gas plants, where a deficit is projected to begin in 2028 and reach 37.9% by 2038.
• The phase-out of gas-fired plants is particularly impactful because they constitute the majority of the country's thermal generation. This scenario anticipates a firm energy deficit by late 2028, reaching 26.7% (29.02 TWh-year) by 2038.
• A sequential phase-out—removing coal plants first and then gas plants—delays the onset of the firm energy deficit until 2033, although it reaches the same 37.9% deficit (41.26 TWh-year) by 2038 as the synchronous scenario.
• The phase-out of only coal-fired plants is projected to result in a firm energy deficit starting in late 2034, increasing to 10.1% (10.95 TWh-year) by 2038.
• To avoid electricity deficits, Colombia requires additional renewable capacity beyond currently planned projects. For a total phase-out of thermal plants (sequential or synchronous), the required additional capacity varies by technology: 31.4 GW if only solar or small hydroelectric plants (PCH) are added, 78.5 GW if only wind is added, or 40.8 GW for a mix of 75% solar, 20% wind, and 5% PCH.
• The document identifies several critical barriers to the energy transition, including socio-environmental conflicts causing project delays, legal uncertainty regarding prior consultations, and the need for urgent improvements in the transmission grid (Misión Transmisión).
• The transition is hindered by market signals, specifically the projected downward trend of natural gas prices, which reduces the economic incentive to replace gas with renewables. The report suggests updating the regulatory framework, including the reliability charge (cargo por confiabilidad) and implementing Firm Energy Obligations (OEF) for renewables.

APA

Valencia, V., Parra, J. F., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Martínez, C., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf

Chicago

Valencia, Verónica, Juan Felipe Parra, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Carolina Martínez, and Giovanni Pabón. Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Valencia |first1=Verónica |last2=Parra |first2=Juan Felipe |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |last4=Rodas |first4=Santiago |last5=Martínez |first5=Carolina |last6=Pabón |first6=Giovanni |title=Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{valenciandbalances, author = {Valencia, Verónica and Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Martínez, Carolina and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }