Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia

The document analyzes four scenarios for the decommissioning of coal and gas plants in Colombia, finding that while average energy balances remain positive, significant deficits in 'firm energy' (guaranteed supply during critical periods like droughts) would emerge. The most severe deficit of 37.9% by 2038 is projected under both synchronous and sequential phase-out scenarios. To mitigate these risks, the report argues for additional renewable capacity beyond current plans, improved transmission infrastructure, and the implementation of battery energy storage systems (BESS).

• Average energy balances are projected to remain positive across all analyzed scenarios through 2038, as new projects are expected to compensate for the energy lost from retired thermal plants. By 2038, the energy supply surplus is estimated at 36.9% for the coal phase-out scenario, 19.9% for the gas phase-out scenario, and 8.3% for the combined coal and gas phase-out scenario.
• Significant deficits in firm energy—the maximum energy a plant can continuously deliver during low hydrology—are projected in all phase-out scenarios. The most critical is the synchronous phase-out of coal and gas, with a deficit starting in 2028 and reaching 37.9% by 2038.
• The phase-out of gas plants is particularly impactful because they constitute the majority of the country's thermal generation. This scenario would lead to a firm energy deficit starting in late 2028 and reaching 26.7% (29.02 TWh-year) by 2038.
• A sequential phase-out (coal first, then gas) delays the onset of the firm energy deficit until 2033, although it reaches the same 37.9% deficit (41.26 TWh-year) by 2038 as the synchronous scenario.
• The phase-out of coal plants alone is the least disruptive, with a firm energy deficit projected to begin in late 2034 and reach 10.1% (10.95 TWh-year) by 2038.
• To avoid firm energy deficits, Colombia requires additional renewable capacity beyond currently planned projects. For a total phase-out of thermal plants, the required additional capacity varies by technology: 31.4 GW if only solar or small hydropower (PCH) is added, 78.5 GW if only wind is added, or 40.8 GW for a mix of 75% solar, 20% wind, and 5% PCH.
• The decommissioning process for thermal plants is estimated to take approximately 4 years, divided into four phases: indicative planning, negotiation and closure agreements, cessation of supplies and operation, and demolition and rehabilitation work. Planning typically accounts for nearly half of the total time.

APA

Valencia, V., Parra, J. F., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Martínez, C., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf

Chicago

Valencia, Verónica, Juan Felipe Parra, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Carolina Martínez, and Giovanni Pabón. Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Valencia |first1=Verónica |last2=Parra |first2=Juan Felipe |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |last4=Rodas |first4=Santiago |last5=Martínez |first5=Carolina |last6=Pabón |first6=Giovanni |title=Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{valenciandbalances, author = {Valencia, Verónica and Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Martínez, Carolina and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Balances oferta-demanda de energía eléctrica ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/PB_Balances_de_energia_electrica_phase_out_plantas_termicas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }