Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia

The document details a bottom-up modeling exercise using the Energy Scope tool to project Colombia's energy transition. It outlines a path toward net-zero emissions by 2050, characterized by a massive scale-up of solar and wind capacity, the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, and the integration of energy storage and green hydrogen. The modeling identifies specific capacity targets for renewable energy across three time horizons and highlights the role of natural gas as a transitional fuel for transport and industry before full electrification.

• By 2030, Colombia's installed renewable generation capacity is estimated to reach approximately 21.4 GW, with hydroelectric power remaining dominant at 15.1 GW (70.56%), followed by large-scale solar at 3 GW (14.02%) and onshore wind at 2 GW (9.35%).
• The 2035 scenario projects a total renewable capacity of 29.9 GW, featuring an increase in solar (large-scale, distributed, and thermal) and the introduction of offshore wind at 2 GW (6.69%). In this period, coal is projected to exit the energy matrix completely.
• To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the model projects a total renewable capacity of 88.2 GW. Solar energy becomes the primary source, with large-scale solar at 29.9 GW (33.9%) and distributed solar at 14.9 GW (16.89%), while offshore wind reaches 17.3 GW (19.61%).
• The transition involves a phased approach to transport decarbonization: natural gas is proposed as a substitute for intensive fossil fuels in private passenger transport for 2030 and 2035 due to cost barriers for electric vehicles, while full electrification and the use of biogas are targeted for the long term.
• Energy storage is critical to manage the intermittency of solar and wind power. The model estimates a need for battery storage capacity equivalent to 9.8% of renewable capacity by 2030 (2.1 GW) and 11.7% by 2050 (10 GW), with the latter requiring an annual investment of 0.62% to 0.8% of GDP.
• The modeling identifies specific technological pathways for hard-to-abate sectors by 2050, including the use of green hydrogen as an energy vector for heavy transport and industry, and the implementation of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) for residual emissions.

APA

Transforma (n.d.). Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf

Chicago

Transforma. Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia. n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Transforma |title=Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{transformandmemoria, author = {{Transforma}}, title = {{Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }