Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia

This report by Transforma details the energy modeling used to define Colombia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for 2030, 2035, and 2050. Using the Energy Scope open-source tool, the analysis projects a transition from fossil fuels toward a diversified renewable energy matrix, emphasizing solar and wind power to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

• The modeling for the 2030 scenario projects a total renewable generation capacity of approximately 21.4 GW. This capacity is dominated by hydroelectric power at 15.1 GW (70.56%), followed by large-scale solar at 3 GW (14.02%) and onshore wind at 2 GW (9.35%).
• By 2035, the projected renewable capacity increases to 29.9 GW. Solar energy expands significantly with 5 GW in large-scale, 2.5 GW in distributed, and 1.3 GW in thermal applications. Offshore wind is introduced into the mix with 2 GW of capacity.
• The 2050 net-zero scenario requires a massive scale-up of renewable capacity to 88.2 GW. Solar and wind become the primary sources, with large-scale solar reaching 29.9 GW (33.9%) and offshore wind reaching 17.3 GW (19.61%), while hydroelectric capacity remains constant at 15.1 GW (17.12%).
• The transition of the transport sector is projected to occur in stages: by 2030, natural gas is prioritized for private passenger transport due to cost barriers for electric vehicles; by 2035, electric vehicle adoption is expected to reach 10% of the fleet (1,895,211 vehicles), up from 0.05% in 2023.
• Energy storage capacity must grow to manage the intermittency of renewables. The model estimates a need for 2.1 GW of battery storage by 2030 (9.8% of renewable capacity), increasing to 10 GW by 2050 (11.7% of capacity), requiring an annual investment of 0.62% to 0.8% of GDP.
• The modeling identifies specific technological limitations and uncertainties, including the inability to explicitly integrate current regulations and the omission of a direct 'justice' component regarding the distribution of benefits and burdens across population sectors.

APA

Transforma (n.d.). Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf

Chicago

Transforma. Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia. n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Transforma |title=Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{transformandmemoria, author = {{Transforma}}, title = {{Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }