Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production

The analysis finds a growing trend of countries incorporating fossil fuel production into their national climate communications, with some establishing pathways for managed decline. However, a significant number of countries still plan for continued or expanded production, and many fail to address the equity and economic diversification needs of a just transition.

• There is an increasing trend of countries addressing fossil fuel production in their climate documents, particularly in LT-LEDS. Out of 11 newer LT-LEDS examined, 8 mention fossil fuel production, compared to only 4 of 8 in a previous 2019 analysis.
• Several countries have introduced specific targets and pathways to wind down fossil fuel production. Examples include Denmark's commitment to a final phase-out of fossil extraction in the North Sea by 2050 and France's commitment to phase out all fossil fuel extraction by 2040.
• Some countries have implemented policy measures to constrain production, such as France's 2018 ban on all new fossil fuel exploration and Costa Rica's moratorium on the exploration and exploitation of fossil fuels.
• Despite global climate goals, 15 countries foresee continued or expanded fossil fuel production. This includes Japan's plans for domestic natural gas and methane hydrate reserves, and Argentina's use of natural gas as a "transition fuel" requiring higher absolute production by 2030.
• Many countries focus on reducing emissions from the production process rather than constraining production itself. Common measures include reducing methane venting and flaring, and electrifying extraction processes, as seen in Canada's oil sands sector strategies.
• Transition planning and economic diversification are mentioned but often lack concrete plans. While the EU and US reference just transition measures for workers, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE mention the need for economic diversification to reduce oil dependence without providing specific policies.
• Countries are increasingly reporting their economic dependence on fossil fuels to frame equity and risk. For example, South Sudan reports that oil exports contribute 98% of its GDP, and Ecuador states oil comprises 44% of its exports.
• International cooperation and support are emerging as key themes for low-capacity countries. Kenya has specifically called for international support to forego the exploitation of its oil and coal reserves to meet environmental goals.

APA

Jones, N., Cabré, M. M., Piggot, G., & Lazarus, M. (2021). Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tapping-the-potential-of-ndcs-and-ltleds-to-address-fossil-fuel-production.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Miquel Muñoz Cabré, Georgia Piggot, and Michael Lazarus. Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tapping-the-potential-of-ndcs-and-ltleds-to-address-fossil-fuel-production.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Cabré |first2=Miquel Muñoz |last3=Piggot |first3=Georgia |last4=Lazarus |first4=Michael |title=Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tapping-the-potential-of-ndcs-and-ltleds-to-address-fossil-fuel-production.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2021tapping, author = {Jones, Natalie and Cabré, Miquel Muñoz and Piggot, Georgia and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tapping-the-potential-of-ndcs-and-ltleds-to-address-fossil-fuel-production.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }