Linking Water Scarcity to Population Movements: From Global Models to Local Experiences

The report examines the gap between global water scarcity models and the local realities of migration. It argues that while global indicators identify high-stress regions, they fail to account for local coping mechanisms, social vulnerability, and the diverse reasons people move. The authors contend that water scarcity is rarely the sole driver of large-scale refugee movements; instead, it interacts with political and economic factors. The document advocates for a livelihoods-based approach to policy that enhances community resilience and recognizes migration as a potential adaptive strategy rather than merely a crisis of 'environmental refugees'.

• Global water scarcity projections suggest that by 2025, as many as four billion people, or more than half the world's population, will live in countries with high levels of water stress, defined as withdrawing more than 40 percent of renewable resources.
• Global models of water scarcity often fail to capture local realities because they rely on national averages, ignoring significant subnational variations in water availability, such as the contrast between northern and southern China or different regions of India.
• The concept of 'environmental refugees' is contested because it often assumes a 'maximalist' view where environmental degradation is the primary cause of displacement, ignoring the integrated role of political and economic drivers.
• Water scarcity impacts livelihoods through various channels beyond biological survival, including the ability to prepare food (e.g., boiling cassava in West Africa) and maintaining hygiene to prevent diseases like cholera.
• Vulnerability to water scarcity is socially differentiated; for example, women in Sub-Saharan Africa often perceive water shortages more severely because they bear a disproportionate responsibility for gathering water from remote sites.
• Households employ a diverse sequence of coping strategies to avoid famine and migration, such as changing consumption patterns, selling livestock, and seeking non-agricultural income.
• Severe droughts in Africa between 1972 and 2000 caused millions of deaths and affected tens of millions of people, with Ethiopia being frequently impacted.
• In 2000, a severe drought in Baluchistan Province, Pakistan, led to an estimated one million people abandoning their homes in search of food, water, and employment.
• The report concludes that water scarcity alone is unlikely to trigger abrupt, large-scale population movements; instead, migration is typically a last-resort response after other coping strategies have failed.

APA

Dow, K., Carr, E. R., Douma, A., Han, G., & Hallding, K. (2005). Linking Water Scarcity to Population Movements: From Global Models to Local Experiences. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Dow_Water_Migration_2005.pdf

Chicago

Dow, Kirstin, Edward R. Carr, Annelieka Douma, Gouyi Han, and Karl Hallding. Linking Water Scarcity to Population Movements: From Global Models to Local Experiences. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2005. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Dow_Water_Migration_2005.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dow |first1=Kirstin |last2=Carr |first2=Edward R. |last3=Douma |first3=Annelieka |last4=Han |first4=Gouyi |last5=Hallding |first5=Karl |title=Linking Water Scarcity to Population Movements: From Global Models to Local Experiences |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2005 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Dow_Water_Migration_2005.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dow2005linking, author = {Dow, Kirstin and Carr, Edward R. and Douma, Annelieka and Han, Gouyi and Hallding, Karl}, title = {{Linking Water Scarcity to Population Movements: From Global Models to Local Experiences}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2005}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Dow_Water_Migration_2005.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }