Supply and sustainability of carbon offsets and alternative fuels for international aviation

The report evaluates the feasibility of ICAO's 'carbon neutral' goal for international aviation growth from 2020 onward. It finds that a selective approach to carbon offsets—focusing on high-integrity projects like methane avoidance—could meet 70–90% of projected demand (3.3–4.5 Gt CO2e) between 2020 and 2035. Including medium-confidence projects would further increase supply to 5.1 Gt CO2e, with REDD+ potentially adding 2.4 Gt CO2e. Alternative biofuels offer lower cumulative reductions (0.1–0.3 Gt CO2e) and face significant challenges regarding land use change and sustainable development, particularly with oilseed crops.

• International aviation emissions are projected to increase from 490.4 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 in 2013 to between 682–755 Mt by 2020 and 1223–1376 Mt by 2035.
• The cumulative demand for offsets to achieve ICAO's carbon-neutral growth goal between 2020 and 2035 is estimated at 3.3–4.5 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2e.
• Carbon offsets from project types with high confidence in environmental integrity and positive sustainable development goals (specifically methane avoidance and landfill gas destruction) could provide 3.0 Gt CO2e, covering 70–90% of ICAO's projected demand.
• Expanding offset eligibility to include project types with medium confidence in environmental integrity would increase the potential supply to 4.6 Gt CO2e, and including those with neutral development impacts would raise it to 5.1 Gt CO2e.
• Jurisdiction-scale REDD+ programmes are estimated to potentially provide an additional 2.4 Gt CO2e of offsets between 2020 and 2035.
• The potential for emission reductions from alternative jet fuels is estimated at 0.1 Gt CO2e in a low-range scenario (25% reduction) and 0.3 Gt CO2e in a high-range scenario (75% reduction) for 2020–2035, provided they are backed by strong sustainability certification and low land-use change.
• Biofuel production capacity for aviation is estimated at 1.8 Mt per year in 2020, with a potential increase to 14.4 Mt per year by 2035 if it grows at a rate of 14% annually.
• Oilseed crops (soy, oil palm, rapeseed) and sugarcane are associated with significant risks of direct and indirect land use change (dLUC and iLUC) and negative sustainable development impacts, such as threats to biodiversity and food security.
• The HEFA pathway is the most commercially advanced for alternative jet fuels, but waste fats and oils—the lowest risk feedstocks—may only meet approximately 15% of the projected 14.4 Mt demand by 2035.

APA

Bailis, R., Broekhoff, D., & Lee, C. M. (2016). Supply and sustainability of carbon offsets and alternative fuels for international aviation. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-03-ICAO-aviation-offsets-biofuels.pdf

Chicago

Bailis, Rob, Derik Broekhoff, and Carrie M. Lee. Supply and sustainability of carbon offsets and alternative fuels for international aviation. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-03-ICAO-aviation-offsets-biofuels.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bailis |first1=Rob |last2=Broekhoff |first2=Derik |last3=Lee |first3=Carrie M. |title=Supply and sustainability of carbon offsets and alternative fuels for international aviation |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-03-ICAO-aviation-offsets-biofuels.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bailis2016supply, author = {Bailis, Rob and Broekhoff, Derik and Lee, Carrie M.}, title = {{Supply and sustainability of carbon offsets and alternative fuels for international aviation}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-03-ICAO-aviation-offsets-biofuels.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }