Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications

The report assesses three global energy scenarios—Baseline, Basic Energy Access, and Shared Development Agenda—to determine how to provide energy for development while limiting global warming to 2°C. It argues that achieving these goals requires a massive socio-technical transformation of energy supply and demand, moving beyond incremental changes to a system dominated by renewables and high energy efficiency. The authors emphasize that this transition requires multi-level governance, including stronger public RD&D, the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, and a shared global development agenda that prioritizes equitable income growth and energy access for the world's poorest regions.

• The Shared Development Agenda (SDA) scenario explores a future where all countries reach per capita income levels of at least USD 10,000 in 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2050, resulting in more equitable global growth and a significant reduction in poverty to 11 million people.
• To meet the 2°C climate target and provide energy for development, conventional fossil-fuel electricity generation must be virtually phased out by 2050, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) based systems being the only remaining fossil-fuel technologies.
• The SDA scenario requires a drastic reduction in energy intensities at a rate of 2.8% per year, meaning global energy intensity would be only 32% of its 2010 value by 2050.
• Meeting the required electricity demand under the Basic Energy Access (BEA) scenario would necessitate a massive scale-up of wind power, requiring 8,900 GW of capacity by 2050, which implies building 248 GW per year between 2015 and 2050.
• The baseline scenario (BAS) predicts that global CO2 emissions will almost double from 36.4 Gt in 2010 to 70.5 Gt in 2050, creating a 98% probability that the average temperature increase will exceed 2°C.
• Socio-technical regimes, consisting of interrelated institutional, technological, and cognitive structures, act as barriers to energy transformation; overcoming these requires destabilizing established regimes and institutionalizing new ones.
• Energy access for the poor is often hindered by 'stickiness' in established practices, where local economic relationships—such as those involving charcoal producers and tinsmiths in Zambia—create vested interests in maintaining inefficient technologies.
• The report identifies a 'valley of death' for energy innovations, arguing that governments must take a more active role through public procurement and RD&D to move technologies from the inception phase to market acceleration.
• Current global energy governance is characterized by a lack of coordination in innovation, as most RD&D is national, leading to under-investment because benefits 'leak' to other countries.
• The UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative's 2030 goals—universal access, doubling energy efficiency, and doubling the share of renewables—are viewed as a useful framework, but they require a stronger permanent institutional home within the UN system to be effective.
• Fossil fuel subsidies are a major barrier to the energy transition, estimated at over USD 500 billion in 2008, and their removal is seen as a critical step to level the playing field for renewables.
• Energy efficiency in the built environment is often stalled by 'split incentives' between investors and users, as well as regulatory frameworks that favor economies of scale over sustainable scope.

APA

Nilsson, M., Heaps, C., Persson, Å., Carson, M., Pachauri, S., Kok, M., Olsson, M., Rehman, I., Schaeffer, R., Wood, D., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Americano, B., & Mulugetta, Y. (2012). Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ResearchReport-EnergyForASharedDevelopmentAgenda-2012.pdf

Chicago

Nilsson, Måns, Charles Heaps, Åsa Persson, Marcus Carson, Shonali Pachauri, Marcel Kok, Marie Olsson, et al. Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ResearchReport-EnergyForASharedDevelopmentAgenda-2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{nilsson2012energy, author = {Nilsson, Måns and Heaps, Charles and Persson, Åsa and Carson, Marcus and Pachauri, Shonali and Kok, Marcel and Olsson, Marie and Rehman, Ibrahim and Schaeffer, Roberto and Wood, Davida and van Vuuren, Detlef and Riahi, Keywan and Americano, Branca and Mulugetta, Yacob}, title = {{Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ResearchReport-EnergyForASharedDevelopmentAgenda-2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }