WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS

The report examines future water requirements through a 'Conventional Development Scenario' (CDS), which assumes a continuation of current demographic and economic trends. It finds that global water withdrawals are projected to increase from 3,700 cubic kilometers in 1995 to 5,000 cubic kilometers by 2025 in a mid-range case, with the most significant growth in developing regions. The study introduces several indices—including use-to-resource ratio, reliability, and coping capacity—to map water vulnerability. Results indicate that by 2025, a substantial portion of the world's population will live in water-stressed conditions, particularly in Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. The report argues that this 'business-as-usual' path is unsustainable and proposes a transition toward a sustainable water future based on efficiency, equity, and ecosystem protection.

• Under the mid-range Conventional Development Scenario (CDS), annual global water withdrawal is projected to grow by 35%, increasing from 3,700 cubic kilometers in 1995 to 5,000 cubic kilometers in 2025.
• The largest absolute increases in water withdrawals by 2025 are expected in South & East Asia (493 additional cubic kilometers) and China+ (231 additional cubic kilometers).
• The report identifies a significant increase in the population living under water reliability stress (classifications 3 and 4), projected to grow from 3.5 billion in 1995 to approximately 5.3 billion in 2025, representing about 63% of the global population.
• The number of countries experiencing high use-to-resource stress (classifications 3 and 4) is projected to rise from 41 in 1995 to 53 in 2025, with the affected population increasing from 1.9 billion to 5.3 billion.
• Despite assumed economic growth in the CDS, the number of people in low-income coping capacity classifications is projected to increase from 4.4 billion in 1995 to 5.9 billion in 2025 due to rapid population growth in poor regions.
• Using the Water Resources Vulnerability Index II (WRVI-II), which treats vulnerability in any single dimension as determinative, 90% of the world's population is projected to be vulnerable by 2025, with nearly 50% being highly vulnerable.
• The report concludes that the Conventional Development Scenario leads to a continuing deterioration of water conditions in already scarce areas and extends water stress to new regions, failing sustainable development criteria.
• Climate change sensitivity analysis using MPI and GFDL models suggests that while global runoff changes may cancel out on a gross scale, local disruptions to wetter or drier conditions are likely.

APA

RASKIN, P., GLEICK, P., KIRSHEN, P., PONTIUS, G., & STRZEPEK, K. (1997). WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-WaterFutures-AssessmentOfLongRangePatternsAndProblems-1997.pdf

Chicago

RASKIN, PAUL, PETER GLEICK, PAUL KIRSHEN, GIL PONTIUS, and KENNETH STRZEPEK. WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1997. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-WaterFutures-AssessmentOfLongRangePatternsAndProblems-1997.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RASKIN |first1=PAUL |last2=GLEICK |first2=PETER |last3=KIRSHEN |first3=PAUL |last4=PONTIUS |first4=GIL |last5=STRZEPEK |first5=KENNETH |title=WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=August 1997 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-WaterFutures-AssessmentOfLongRangePatternsAndProblems-1997.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{raskin1997water, author = {RASKIN, PAUL and GLEICK, PETER and KIRSHEN, PAUL and PONTIUS, GIL and STRZEPEK, KENNETH}, title = {{WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1997}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-WaterFutures-AssessmentOfLongRangePatternsAndProblems-1997.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }