Sweden in a World of Growing Uncertainties

The report argues that transitioning to a green economy can serve as an insurance policy for Sweden against future global shocks. Using a scenario-based 'wind-tunnel' approach, it tests the robustness of various policy options across four plausible global futures: Glocal Citizenship, Global Governance, Return of Geopolitics, and Big Business. The authors conclude that while Sweden possesses strong preconditions—such as renewable resources and high social capital—it must proactively integrate environmental considerations into the heart of economic decision-making, specifically through the Ministry of Finance, to ensure long-term stability and competitiveness.

• A transition to a green economy can act as a prudent insurance policy, enhancing the resilience of Swedish society to withstand and potentially prosper under conditions of global uncertainty and future shocks.
• Sweden can leverage existing comparative advantages for a green transition, including its renewable natural resources, high-grade ores, a non-fossil based power system, and high social capital consisting of an educated population and technological expertise.
• Sweden's strong financial position, characterized by low public debt and the insulation provided by its own currency during the euro area debt crisis, presents a strategic window to implement green economic reforms now rather than later.
• To ensure a genuine transformation, the Ministry of Finance should be directly accountable for pursuing green economic targets with the same rigour as other headline economic indicators.
• The report identifies 'no-regrets' policy options that are robust across all four scenarios, including the electrification of domestic transport systems, investments in energy- and resource-efficient infrastructure, and the implementation of circular economy regulatory reforms.
• A green tax switch is proposed to internalize negative externalities and encourage resource efficiency without increasing the overall tax burden, which would also prepare the economy for a future of higher energy costs.
• The report emphasizes that top-down government initiatives must be matched by bottom-up involvement from the business community, civil society, and social partners to build democratic support for the transition.
• Sweden has the potential to become a net exporter of green electricity and excess hydropower capacity, provided it invests in the necessary transmission infrastructure to export to continental Europe.
• The 'Nordic model' of inclusive labour markets and active labour policies is viewed as a critical tool for managing the 'creative destruction' of a green transition by retraining workers and preserving human capital.

APA

Hallding, K., Eriksson, E. A., Mobjörk, M., Nilsson, M., Alfredsson, E., Skånberg, K., Sonnsjö, H., Benzie, M., Carlsen, H., & Kemp-Benedict, E. (2013). Sweden in a World of Growing Uncertainties. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-report-hallding-swedeninaworldofgrowinguncertainties.pdf

Chicago

Hallding, Karl, E. Anders Eriksson, Malin Mobjörk, Måns Nilsson, Eva Alfredsson, Kristian Skånberg, Hannes Sonnsjö, et al. Sweden in a World of Growing Uncertainties. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-report-hallding-swedeninaworldofgrowinguncertainties.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{hallding2013sweden, author = {Hallding, Karl and Eriksson, E. Anders and Mobjörk, Malin and Nilsson, Måns and Alfredsson, Eva and Skånberg, Kristian and Sonnsjö, Hannes and Benzie, Magnus and Carlsen, Henrik and Kemp-Benedict, Eric}, title = {{Sweden in a World of Growing Uncertainties}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-report-hallding-swedeninaworldofgrowinguncertainties.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }