Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World

The report identifies significant risks of cumulative supply deficits for indium, tellurium, and neodymium by 2035, which could hinder the deployment of low-carbon technologies like photovoltaics and electric vehicles. Using a scenario calculator based on IEA and WEF frameworks, the study finds that indium and tellurium face severe risks, while cobalt and lithium show limited risk. The photovoltaic industry is highlighted as particularly vulnerable, specifically second-generation thin-film technologies. Proposed mitigation strategies include material substitution, vertical integration, and increased recycling, though the latter faces technical and economic hurdles. The report argues that current government policies often treat scarcity as a technological issue, neglecting the geopolitical and economic risks that can exacerbate supply bottlenecks.

• Scenario analysis indicates a severe risk of medium and long-term cumulative supply deficits (CSD) for indium and tellurium, and a moderate to severe risk for neodymium by 2035.
• Cobalt and lithium are projected to have a limited risk of long-term cumulative supply deficits, remaining in surplus in most scenario combinations except under specific high-demand/low-supply trajectories.
• The photovoltaic (PV) industry, particularly second-generation thin-film technologies like Copper Indium (Gallium) (di) Selenide (CIGS) and Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), is most impacted by metal scarcity, with tellurium identified as the greatest concern.
• Mining and processing of minerals contribute over 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, with indium having a significantly higher carbon footprint per kilogram (156 kg CO2 eq) compared to cobalt (9 kg CO2 eq) or tellurium (8 kg CO2 eq).
• Recycling of post-consumer scrap is hindered by the fact that metals are often used in extremely small quantities across many products, making collection systems inefficient and recovery technically difficult.
• Geographic concentration of production creates supply vulnerabilities; for example, China controls over 95 per cent of rare earth metals and antimony, while 90 per cent of niobium is produced in Brazil and 77 per cent of platinum in South Africa.
• Business responses to scarcity include material substitution (e.g., Toyota exploring induction motors to replace neodymium magnets) and vertical integration (e.g., First Solar Inc. integrating with its supplier 5n Plus).
• Current national policies often frame mineral scarcity as a technological issue, focusing on R&D and innovation rather than addressing the economic and political risks that contribute to supply management difficulties.

APA

Dawkins, E., Chadwick, M., Roelich, K., & Falk, R. (2012). Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ProjectReport-Dawkins-MetalsInALowCarbonEconomy-2012.pdf

Chicago

Dawkins, Elena, Matthew Chadwick, Katy Roelich, and Richard Falk. Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ProjectReport-Dawkins-MetalsInALowCarbonEconomy-2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dawkins |first1=Elena |last2=Chadwick |first2=Matthew |last3=Roelich |first3=Katy |last4=Falk |first4=Richard |title=Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ProjectReport-Dawkins-MetalsInALowCarbonEconomy-2012.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dawkins2012metals, author = {Dawkins, Elena and Chadwick, Matthew and Roelich, Katy and Falk, Richard}, title = {{Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-ProjectReport-Dawkins-MetalsInALowCarbonEconomy-2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }