Risk ownership for transboundary climate risks in global supply chains

The paper addresses the lack of clarity regarding who is responsible for managing climate risks that propagate across borders. It introduces a framework to identify stakeholders, assets, and objectives at risk, applying it to the supply chain of Brazilian non-GMO soy protein concentrate imported for the Norwegian aquaculture industry. The analysis demonstrates that while national-level risk ownership may be clear, transboundary responsibility—such as Norway's role in supporting adaptation in Brazil—remains ambiguous.

• A significant gap exists in business understanding of climate risks; only 27% of businesses have a good understanding of the climate risks affecting their supply chains, and only one in five companies have planned adaptation measures.
• The authors propose a five-step framework for identifying risk ownership: 1) Define the system boundary, 2) Define transboundary climate impacts, 3) Identify additional stakeholders and values at risk, 4) Identify existing climate adaptation responses, and 5) Map risk ownership.
• In the case of Brazilian soy protein concentrate imported to Norway, the climate impact transmission is classified as 'simple' because the main source is in a single country (Brazil), supplied by three companies, and consumed by a single industry (fish feed) for a final industry (farmed salmon).
• Climate change is projected to increase drought periods in Brazil's Cerrado biome by 1% to 6% for every 1°C of temperature increase, potentially halving the rainfed area with ideal soybean production conditions by 2030.
• The Norwegian aquaculture industry is highly dependent on Brazilian soy, with Norway importing almost 90% of its soy protein concentrate from Brazil; this creates a systemic risk where Brazilian droughts could increase fish feed prices and reduce the competitiveness of Norwegian farmed salmon.
• Adaptation responses in Norway include developing alternative protein sources (such as insects, bacteria, yeast, and micro-algae) and sourcing soy from Europe via the Donau Soja nonprofit organization.
• The framework reveals a lack of clarity regarding transboundary responsibility; while internal national adaptation mandates exist, it is unclear to what extent Norway is responsible for supporting adaptation efforts within Brazil.
• There is a potential lack of policy coherence in Norway, as the growth objective of Sjømat Norge (fivefold increase by 2050) may conflict with sustainability goals to reduce dependency on Brazilian soy.

APA

Canales, N., Mikaelsson, M., Klein, R. J. T., Lager, F., & Aall, C. (2025). Risk ownership for transboundary climate risks in global supply chains. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/risk-ownership-global-supply-chain-transboundary-risk-sei2025-016.pdf

Chicago

Canales, Nella, Mikael Mikaelsson, Richard J. T. Klein, Frida Lager, and Carlo Aall. Risk ownership for transboundary climate risks in global supply chains. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2025. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/risk-ownership-global-supply-chain-transboundary-risk-sei2025-016.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Canales |first1=Nella |last2=Mikaelsson |first2=Mikael |last3=Klein |first3=Richard J. T. |last4=Lager |first4=Frida |last5=Aall |first5=Carlo |title=Risk ownership for transboundary climate risks in global supply chains |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2025 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/risk-ownership-global-supply-chain-transboundary-risk-sei2025-016.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canales2025risk, author = {Canales, Nella and Mikaelsson, Mikael and Klein, Richard J. T. and Lager, Frida and Aall, Carlo}, title = {{Risk ownership for transboundary climate risks in global supply chains}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/risk-ownership-global-supply-chain-transboundary-risk-sei2025-016.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }