Comprehensive policy package for decarbonisation of the Estonian electricity production by 2050

The report analyzes the feasibility of decarbonizing Estonia's electricity production, which was 86.39% dependent on oil shale in 2013. Using the LEAP model and multi-criteria analysis, it compares several scenarios, finding that a 'LowCO2' path could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. Achieving this requires phasing out oil shale subsidies, investing in grid interconnections with Latvia and Sweden, and significantly increasing support for energy efficiency and distributed renewable generation.

• Estonia's electricity production is heavily reliant on oil shale, with 2013 data showing that oil shale and its derivatives (retort gas and oil) accounted for 90.9% of total production, while total renewables contributed only 9.11%.
• The 'LowCO2' scenario demonstrates that Estonia can achieve a nearly complete shift to renewable energy, with power production becoming 98% based on renewable fuels and sources from 2045 onwards.
• Implementing the LowCO2 development path could result in a 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 when compared to 1990 levels.
• Under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, the share of renewable electricity is projected to peak at 31% in 2020 before falling to 20% by 2050, because existing legislation caps the development of new renewable capacities and growing demand is met by fossil fuels.
• Electricity demand projections for 2050 vary significantly by scenario: 15,050 GWh for BAU, 11,550 GWh for HighCO2, and 9,215 GWh for LowCO2, with the latter seeing significant decreases in the residential sector due to heat pumps and energy efficiency.
• To achieve decarbonisation, the report recommends specific policy shifts, including the abolition of carbon tax exemptions for large electricity producers and the removal of excise tax exemptions for fossil fuels in the fisheries and agriculture sectors.
• Infrastructure improvements are deemed necessary to support distributed generation, specifically calling for new grid interconnections with Sweden and Latvia to utilize wider power system balancing capacities.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Comprehensive policy package for decarbonisation of the Estonian electricity production by 2050. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NORSTRAT_Comprehensive_policy_package_for_decarbonisation_of_the_Estonian_electricity_production_by_2050._final.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Comprehensive policy package for decarbonisation of the Estonian electricity production by 2050. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NORSTRAT_Comprehensive_policy_package_for_decarbonisation_of_the_Estonian_electricity_production_by_2050._final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Comprehensive policy package for decarbonisation of the Estonian electricity production by 2050 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NORSTRAT_Comprehensive_policy_package_for_decarbonisation_of_the_Estonian_electricity_production_by_2050._final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendcomprehensive, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Comprehensive policy package for decarbonisation of the Estonian electricity production by 2050}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NORSTRAT_Comprehensive_policy_package_for_decarbonisation_of_the_Estonian_electricity_production_by_2050._final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }