New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade

The report assesses Sweden's vulnerability to climate risks originating in other countries through its open economy and global trade links. Using three types of trade data—national toll logs, input-output tables, and resource footprints—the study finds that while direct trade partners (e.g., Germany and Nordic countries) are relatively resilient, deeper supply chain tiers reveal significant dependencies on climate-vulnerable emerging economies in Asia and Africa. A detailed case study on Brazilian soy demonstrates that while production risks in key sourcing areas like Mato Grosso are currently low, transport risks—specifically landslides and flash floods on long roads to ports—pose a higher threat. The authors argue that traditional risk management strategies like substitution are limited by the systemic nature of climate change and the 'stickiness' of trade relationships, recommending that Sweden integrate transboundary risk into its National Adaptation Strategy and lead global multilateral efforts for systemic resilience.

• Traditional national toll statistics provide a reassuring but incomplete picture of climate risk, as they primarily highlight trade with geographically close and low-vulnerability partners like Germany and other Nordic countries.
• More nuanced trade data, specifically resource footprints, reveal hidden dependencies on highly climate-vulnerable countries in Asia and Africa that are critical to Swedish supply chains but often invisible in first-tier trade statistics.
• When climate vulnerability is weighted against trade importance, countries such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Viet Nam emerge as significant risk hotspots for Swedish trade.
• In the Brazilian soy supply chain, the state of Mato Grosso is the most important source for Swedish consumption, accounting for 48% of embedded soy in 2011.
• For Brazilian soy, transport risks—specifically landslides and flash floods on roads from farms to ports—are projected to be higher than production risks.
• The study identifies 'stickiness' in trade relationships, where long-standing contracts and infrastructure dependencies make the substitution of high-risk suppliers difficult and costly.
• Sweden's position high in the global value chain creates a cumulative systemic risk, where climate risks from material inputs and processing stages concentrate as products move toward final consumption.
• The authors recommend that Sweden's revised National Adaptation Strategy include a dedicated chapter on transboundary climate risk, assign ownership to relevant ministries, and establish a cross-government working group.

APA

Lager, F., & Benzie, M. (2022). New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/new-risk-horizons-sei2022.033.pdf

Chicago

Lager, Frida, and Magnus Benzie. New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/new-risk-horizons-sei2022.033.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lager |first1=Frida |last2=Benzie |first2=Magnus |title=New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/new-risk-horizons-sei2022.033.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lager2022new, author = {Lager, Frida and Benzie, Magnus}, title = {{New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/new-risk-horizons-sei2022.033.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }