Great Transition

The document analyzes the current 'Planetary Phase' of human history, characterized by global interconnectedness and accelerating change. It presents six potential scenarios for the future: Market Forces, Policy Reform, Breakdown, Fortress World, Eco-communalism, and the New Sustainability Paradigm (the 'Great Transition'). The authors argue that while current trends favor a risky market-driven path, a transition to a sustainable world is possible through a combination of technological 'dematerialization' and a fundamental shift in human values away from consumerism toward solidarity and ecological health. The report outlines specific strategies for this transition, including the role of civil society, the need for a 'science of sustainability,' and the implementation of renewable energy and ecological farming.

• Humanity has entered a 'Planetary Phase' of civilization, where the scale of human activity and interconnectedness has reached a global level, characterized by the information revolution, global governance, and the globalization of the world economy.
• The 'Market Forces' scenario, based on the conventional development paradigm, is deemed unsustainable and risky because the 'growth effect' of increasing human activity outweighs the 'efficiency effect' of technological improvements, leading to intensified environmental degradation.
• A 'Fortress World' scenario represents a catastrophic outcome where an elite minority retreats into protected enclaves, using authoritarian control and high-tech surveillance to manage a disenfranchised and impoverished global majority.
• The 'Policy Reform' scenario suggests that sustainability can be achieved through government-led initiatives to 'bend the curve' of development toward specific targets, such as stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 450 ppmv by 2100 to keep global temperature increases below 2ºC.
• A 'Great Transition' requires more than policy reform; it necessitates a 'lifestyle wedge' that breaks the link between material consumption and human well-being, shifting values from individualism and consumerism toward social solidarity and ecological sensibility.
• The transition to a sustainable energy future requires transcending fossil fuels in favor of a 'solar economy' utilizing solar cells, wind, modern biomass, and hydrogen, while phasing out nuclear power due to safety and proliferation risks.
• Agricultural transition must move toward knowledge-intensive and less chemical-intensive practices, utilizing the precautionary principle for biotechnology to increase yields without degrading ecosystems.
• Civil society, particularly through non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and a globally connected youth culture, is identified as a critical agent of change capable of enforcing transparency and accountability for corporations and governments.
• The report proposes a 'science of sustainability' that uses socio-ecological systems as its fundamental unit of analysis to understand non-linear interactions and provide early warning systems for planetary perils.

APA

RASKIN, P., BANURI, T., GALLOPÍN, G., GUTMAN, P., HAMMOND, A., KATES, R., & SWART, R. (2002). Great Transition. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/great-transition-2002.pdf

Chicago

RASKIN, PAUL, TARIQ BANURI, GILBERTO GALLOPÍN, PABLO GUTMAN, AL HAMMOND, ROBERT KATES, and ROB SWART. Great Transition. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/great-transition-2002.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RASKIN |first1=PAUL |last2=BANURI |first2=TARIQ |last3=GALLOPÍN |first3=GILBERTO |last4=GUTMAN |first4=PABLO |last5=HAMMOND |first5=AL |last6=KATES |first6=ROBERT |last7=SWART |first7=ROB |title=Great Transition |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2002 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/great-transition-2002.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{raskin2002great, author = {RASKIN, PAUL and BANURI, TARIQ and GALLOPÍN, GILBERTO and GUTMAN, PABLO and HAMMOND, AL and KATES, ROBERT and SWART, ROB}, title = {{Great Transition}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2002}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/great-transition-2002.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }